Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Thursday, October 1 through Monday, October 5.
12
games on the board
12
settled so far
64-34
record, all season
65%
picks correct
Thursday, October 1
Sunday, October 4
- Indianapolis Colts vs Washington CommandersQB change
We pulled our call when the starting quarterback changed.
- Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesWon ✓
Los Angeles Rams, 62% to win
Projected total 44.7
- Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsWon ✓
New York Giants, 57% to win
Projected total 44.9
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansLost ✗
Houston Texans, 65% to win
Projected total 47.7
- New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsLost ✗
Buffalo Bills, 62% to win
Projected total 47.1
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensWon ✓
Baltimore Ravens, 80% to win
Projected total 46.1
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersQB change
We pulled our call when the starting quarterback changed.
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- New York Jets at Chicago BearsQB change
We pulled our call when the starting quarterback changed.
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsWon ✓
Minnesota Vikings, 80% to win
Projected total 41.9
- Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersWon ✓
San Francisco 49ers, 61% to win
Projected total 45.7
- Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksWon ✓
Seattle Seahawks, 81% to win
Projected total 41.6
- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersWon ✓
Kansas City Chiefs, 62% to win
Projected total 44.1
- Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLost ✗
Detroit Lions, 56% to win
Projected total 51.1
Monday, October 5
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Pittsburgh Steelers, 56% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.
Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.