Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Thursday, October 22 through Monday, October 26.
10
games on the board
10
settled so far
64-34
record, all season
65%
picks correct
Thursday, October 22
Sunday, October 25
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans SaintsWon ✓
Pittsburgh Steelers, 61% to win
Projected total 47.9
- Cleveland Browns at Tennessee TitansWon ✓
Cleveland Browns, 58% to win
Projected total 38.9
- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota VikingsWon ✓
Minnesota Vikings, 82% to win
Projected total 45.2
- New York Giants at Houston TexansLost ✗
Houston Texans, 70% to win
Projected total 44.6
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina PanthersLost ✗
Carolina Panthers, 57% to win
Projected total 45.6
- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta FalconsLost ✗
San Francisco 49ers, 63% to win
Projected total 47.3
- Miami Dolphins at New York JetsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore RavensQB change
We pulled our call when the starting quarterback changed.
- Denver Broncos at Arizona CardinalsWon ✓
Denver Broncos, 76% to win
Projected total 44.6
- Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas RaidersWon ✓
Los Angeles Rams, 67% to win
Projected total 49.3
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit LionsWon ✓
Detroit Lions, 74% to win
Projected total 51.5
- Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle SeahawksWon ✓
Seattle Seahawks, 69% to win
Projected total 43.9
Monday, October 26
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Pittsburgh Steelers, 61% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.
Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.