Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Thursday, October 29 through Monday, November 2.
12
games on the board
12
settled so far
64-34
record, all season
65%
picks correct
Thursday, October 29
Sunday, November 1
- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay BuccaneersWon ✓
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 55% to win
Projected total 46.5
- Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh SteelersWon ✓
Pittsburgh Steelers, 65% to win
Projected total 41.2
- Las Vegas Raiders at New York JetsLost ✗
New York Jets, 52% to win
Projected total 46.4
- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville JaguarsWon ✓
Jacksonville Jaguars, 86% to win
Projected total 48
- Arizona Cardinals at Dallas CowboysLost ✗
Dallas Cowboys, 62% to win
Projected total 52.3
- Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati BengalsWon ✓
Cincinnati Bengals, 77% to win
Projected total 46.1
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo BillsWon ✓
Buffalo Bills, 81% to win
Projected total 52.8
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit LionsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles RamsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- New England Patriots at Miami DolphinsWon ✓
New England Patriots, 82% to win
Projected total 43.8
- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver BroncosWon ✓
Denver Broncos, 53% to win
Projected total 40.6
- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington CommandersWon ✓
Washington Commanders, 66% to win
Projected total 45.5
Monday, November 2
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Green Bay Packers, 66% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.
Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.