2026 US Open predictions: who wins the title

Where these numbers come from

We take the published draw and solve it exactly. Every possible meeting between two players is priced by the same calibrated match model our daily board is graded on, and the bracket is then worked through round by round, so each player’s title probability reflects the specific path in front of them rather than an average opponent. Nothing is simulated, so there is no sampling error in these numbers. An opening-round match is priced more cautiously than a later one, because that is the round our model has historically been most overconfident in.

We checked the method against 127 completed Grand Slam draws back to 2010, rebuilding each bracket and scoring it only from what was known before that tournament started. Chaining seven rounds of match probabilities turns out to understate the best players badly — our top pick was claiming 20% and winning about 35% — so the final numbers are scaled to match that measured record. They are set at the cautious end of what the history supports, which means the favourite here is slightly more likely to win than the number says, not less.

Two limits worth stating. We have no injury feed, so a player carrying a knock into the tournament is not marked down for it, and a withdrawal after the draw was published is not reflected until we rebuild the board — where the field is not what the draw sheet says, these numbers describe the draw sheet. And the men’s draw is best-of-five, a format our match model has less graded history in than best-of-three. We are not claiming these are sharper than the market’s odds; we publish no price to compare against, and the tier word is the claim, not the decimal.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 US Open men's singles?

Maiden publishes three picks: Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev and Rafael Jodar. They sit in different bands of our own model — the top of our board, the tier below it, and a genuine longshot in our 1-3% band — each with our title probability attached, and all three are graded once the final is played.

What are Carlos Alcaraz's chances of winning the 2026 US Open?

Our model puts Carlos Alcaraz at 37% to win the men's singles title. That comes from solving the actual draw — every possible path to the final, using the same calibrated match model behind our daily board.

Who will win the 2026 US Open women's singles?

Maiden publishes three picks: Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Linda Noskova. They sit in different bands of our own model — the top of our board, the tier below it, and a genuine longshot in our 1-3% band — each with our title probability attached, and all three are graded once the final is played.

What are Aryna Sabalenka's chances of winning the 2026 US Open?

Our model puts Aryna Sabalenka at 27% to win the women's singles title. That comes from solving the actual draw — every possible path to the final, using the same calibrated match model behind our daily board.

How are these US Open predictions calculated?

We take the published draw and solve it exactly. Every possible meeting between two players is priced by the same calibrated match model our daily picks are graded on, and the bracket is then worked through round by round, so a player's title probability accounts for the precise path in front of them rather than an average opponent. There is no simulation and no sampling error — the numbers are computed, not drawn. A first-round match is priced more cautiously than a later one, because that is where our model has historically been most overconfident.

How accurate are these title probabilities?

We tested the method on 127 completed Grand Slam draws going back to 2010, rebuilding each bracket and scoring it from what was known before the tournament started. Over those events the champion came from our top three picks about seven times in ten, and our single top pick won about a third of the time. The numbers on this page are tuned so the favourite's probability matches that measured record rather than flattering it.

Do these account for injuries and withdrawals?

Only indirectly. A player who has been losing, or who has not played, rates lower automatically because recent results and serve form drive the model. But we do not have an injury feed, so a player carrying a knock into the tournament is not marked down for it, and a withdrawal after the draw is published is not reflected until we rebuild the board. Where the field is not what the draw sheet says, these numbers are describing the draw sheet.

Are these better than the market's odds?

We don't claim that, and we publish no price to compare against. These are our own probabilities, and the tier word is the claim.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.