✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Benjamin Bonzi was our 64% pick, and won 6-7 6-2 7-5.
Pick: Bonzi
Win probability: 64% Bonzi
Sunday brings the Hertogenbosch final: Benjamin Bonzi against Bernard Tomic. Benjamin Bonzi is 5-5 across recent matches. Bernard Tomic is 3-7 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Bonzi comes in off a compressed schedule; Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Bonzi — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 75% on Tatjana Maria, who won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Maria
Win probability: 75% Maria
The London title is on the line on Sunday, when Kamilla Rakhimova meets Tatjana Maria. Tatjana Maria is 5-5 across recent matches. Kamilla Rakhimova is 4-6 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Tatjana Maria, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Kamilla Rakhimova.
The serve is where this match separates: Maria has been winning 65.7% of first-serve points to Rakhimova's 62.2%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Rakhimova is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Maria is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. Rakhimova needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Donna Vekic at 76% lost to Anna Blinkova (6-2 6-4).
Pick: Vekic
Win probability: 76% Vekic
Sunday brings the London final: Anna Blinkova against Donna Vekic. Donna Vekic has won 6 of the last 10. Anna Blinkova is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1.
Vekic's 68.6% behind the first serve (against 61.5% for Blinkova) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Blinkova is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. If Vekic plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Robin Montgomery, who won 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Montgomery
Win probability: 76% Montgomery
Sunday brings the Hertogenbosch final: Joanna Garland against Robin Montgomery. Robin Montgomery is 4-6 across recent matches. Joanna Garland is 4-6 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Robin Montgomery simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. Garland comes in off a compressed schedule; Montgomery comes in off a compressed schedule. Garland needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Greet Minnen was our 62% pick, and won 6-1 2-6 6-0.
Pick: Minnen
Win probability: 62% Minnen
The Hertogenbosch title is on the line on Sunday, when Ella Seidel meets Greet Minnen. Greet Minnen is 3-7 across recent matches. Ella Seidel is searching for form, having lost 6 in a row (1 of the last 10).
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Greet Minnen is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Minnen around 62%. Minnen should have enough here, though Seidel has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Sho Shimabukuro at 80% before the match, and Sho Shimabukuro won 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Shimabukuro
Win probability: 80% Shimabukuro
It all comes down to Sunday at Stuttgart, where Jurij Rodionov faces Sho Shimabukuro for the trophy. Sho Shimabukuro is 5-5 across recent matches. Jurij Rodionov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Rodionov comes in off a compressed schedule; Shimabukuro comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Shimabukuro win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 62% on Marc Andrea Huesler; Gauthier Onclin won 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Huesler
Win probability: 62% Huesler
The Stuttgart title is on the line on Sunday, when Gauthier Onclin meets Marc Andrea Huesler. Marc Andrea Huesler comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Gauthier Onclin has dropped 2 straight and sits at 0-10 over the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Huesler's 73.3% behind the first serve (against 65.1% for Onclin) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Huesler.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Roman Safiullin at 89%, but Alexis Galarneau won 6-4 6-7 7-6.
Pick: Safiullin
Win probability: 89% Safiullin
The Stuttgart title is on the line on Sunday, when Alexis Galarneau meets Roman Safiullin. Roman Safiullin is 4-6 across recent matches. Alexis Galarneau has won 4 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Safiullin's 72.7% behind the first serve (against 63.4% for Galarneau) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Galarneau comes in off a compressed schedule; Safiullin comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Safiullin win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Elsa Jacquemot at 61% lost to Hanyu Guo (6-2 4-6 6-4).
Pick: Jacquemot
Win probability: 61% Jacquemot
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Elsa Jacquemot goes up against Hanyu Guo in the London semifinal. Elsa Jacquemot comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Hanyu Guo comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Jacquemot's 62.3% behind the first serve (against 56.9% for Guo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Jacquemot should have enough here, though Guo has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 65% on Hannah Klugman; Shuai Zhang won 6-2 4-6 6-4.
Pick: Klugman
Win probability: 65% Klugman
Hannah Klugman and Shuai Zhang meet in the semifinal at London on Sunday. Hannah Klugman is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (0 of the last 10). Shuai Zhang limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. The edge belongs to Klugman — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Heather Watson at 74%, but Shuai Zhang won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Watson
Win probability: 74% Watson
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Heather Watson goes up against Shuai Zhang in the London match. Heather Watson has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten. Shuai Zhang has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Watson — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Watson has been winning 64.1% of first-serve points to Zhang's 59.7%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. If Watson plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Pierre Hugues Herbert at 76% before the match, and Pierre Hugues Herbert won 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Herbert
Win probability: 76% Herbert
The Stuttgart title is on the line on Sunday, when Mert Alkaya meets Pierre Hugues Herbert. Pierre Hugues Herbert has won 3 of the last 10. Mert Alkaya comes in at 1 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Alkaya comes in off a compressed schedule; Herbert comes in off a compressed schedule. If Herbert plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Lin Zhu at 83% lost to Katie Volynets (6-7 7-6 6-1).
Pick: Zhu
Win probability: 83% Zhu
It all comes down to Sunday at Hertogenbosch, where Katie Volynets faces Lin Zhu for the trophy. Lin Zhu is 4-6 across recent matches. Katie Volynets is 3-7 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Zhu comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Zhu win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Tatjana Maria at 93% before the match, and Tatjana Maria won 6-2 1-6 6-2.
Pick: Maria
Win probability: 93% Maria
Tatjana Maria and Yuriko Miyazaki meet in the semifinal at London on Sunday. Tatjana Maria comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Yuriko Miyazaki is 4-6 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Maria has been winning 65.7% of first-serve points to Miyazaki's 59.9%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Miyazaki needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Antonia Ruzic was our 62% pick, and won 6-3 4-6 7-5.
Pick: Ruzic
Win probability: 62% Ruzic
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Antonia Ruzic goes up against Storm Hunter in the London match. Antonia Ruzic is 4-6 across recent matches. Storm Hunter is 6-4 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Antonia Ruzic is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Ruzic around 62%. Ruzic should have enough here, though Hunter has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Polina Kudermetova was our 53% pick, and won 4-6 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Kudermetova
Win probability: 53% Kudermetova
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Polina Kudermetova goes up against Priscilla Hon in the London semifinal. Polina Kudermetova is 3-7 across recent matches. Priscilla Hon has won 6 of the last 10.
Polina Kudermetova leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Kudermetova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Antonia Ruzic was our 68% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Ruzic
Win probability: 68% Ruzic
Antonia Ruzic and Aoi Ito meet in the semifinal at London on Sunday. Antonia Ruzic has won 4 of the last 10. Aoi Ito is 5-5 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Ruzic has been winning 60.2% of first-serve points to Ito's 55.5%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Ruzic should have enough here, though Ito has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Polina Kudermetova was our 75% pick, and won 6-3 4-6 6-4.
Pick: Kudermetova
Win probability: 75% Kudermetova
The London title is on the line on Sunday, when Alina Charaeva meets Polina Kudermetova. Polina Kudermetova has won 3 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva comes in at 1 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Kudermetova has been winning 63.5% of first-serve points to Charaeva's 58.9%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Charaeva is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Kudermetova is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. Charaeva needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 80% on Storm Hunter, who won 5-7 7-6 7-6.
Pick: Hunter
Win probability: 80% Hunter
Sunday's London semifinal pits Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Storm Hunter on grass. Storm Hunter is 6-4 across recent matches. Aliaksandra Sasnovich limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Anything other than a Hunter win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Maddison Inglis was our 79% pick, and won 6-3 2-6 6-2.
Pick: Inglis
Win probability: 79% Inglis
It all comes down to Sunday at London, where Hanyu Guo faces Maddison Inglis for the trophy. Maddison Inglis comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Hanyu Guo has won 2 of the last 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Guo is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Inglis is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling. Guo needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Maddison Inglis was our 91% pick, and won 5-7 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Inglis
Win probability: 91% Inglis
Sunday's London semifinal pits Alycia Parks against Maddison Inglis on grass. Maddison Inglis has won 3 of the last 10. Alycia Parks is 5-5 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Anything other than a Inglis win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.