It all comes down to Sunday at Stuttgart, where Mert Alkaya faces Pierre Hugues Herbert for the trophy. Pierre Hugues Herbert comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Mert Alkaya has won 1 of the last 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Alkaya comes in off a compressed schedule; Herbert comes in off a compressed schedule. Alkaya needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.