Saturday's Hertogenbosch semifinal pits Jesper De Jong against Shintaro Mochizuki on grass. Jesper De Jong is 4-6 across recent matches. Shintaro Mochizuki is searching for form, having lost 7 in a row (2 of the last 10).
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Jong has been winning 71.8% of first-serve points to Mochizuki's 67%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Jong gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Jesper De Jong | Shintaro Mochizuki |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 58.6% | 53.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 71.8% | 67% |
| 2nd serve points won | 50.2% | 46% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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