Who will win Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto?

Maiden picks Ernesta Kareckaite at 55% to beat Melissa Gatto in the bout at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan. It's an upset call — the market leans the other way.

Will Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto go the distance?

We put the chance this fight reaches a decision at 73% — the other 27% of the time it ends inside all three rounds.

How does Ernesta Kareckaite beat Melissa Gatto?

The likeliest ending is decision. Full method split: decision 73%, KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%. Every branch carries its own number.

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Meta APEX · 3 rounds · Oct 10, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto — preview and prediction

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Maiden picks Ernesta Kareckaite (55%) by decision over Melissa Gatto. An upset call: the market leans the other way.

Pick: Kareckaite · Win probability 55% Kareckaite

Method of victory

Most likely: decision 73% · KO/TKO 15% · submission 13%

decision: 73%
KO/TKO: 15%
submission: 13%

We put the chance this fight reaches a decision at 73% — otherwise it ends inside three rounds. Every method call is graded against the real result after the fight.

Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto share the cage in the bout of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan. Our number leans Ernesta Kareckaite at 55%, with Gatto the live side of a bout that is closer than the marquee suggests. The method math points to decision most often (73%), and we put the chance it reaches all three rounds at 73%. This is an upset call: the market leans Gatto, and we're taking Kareckaite anyway.

The rest of the numbers

This page publishes the method call. Pro opens the round-by-round finish odds behind it, and what the number did before it froze: every revision, or proof it never moved.

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Frequently asked questions

Who will win Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto?: Maiden picks Ernesta Kareckaite at 55% to beat Melissa Gatto in the bout at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan. It's an upset call — the market leans the other way.
Will Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto go the distance?: We put the chance this fight reaches a decision at 73% — the other 27% of the time it ends inside all three rounds.
How does Ernesta Kareckaite beat Melissa Gatto?: The likeliest ending is decision. Full method split: decision 73%, KO/TKO 15%, submission 13%. Every branch carries its own number.

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