Best College Football Games, Week 10, 2026
The 5 biggest games of Week 10, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and the games we have no call on are marked as such, not papered over.
Week 10 of the 2026 college football season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 65% to win against Miami Hurricanes. The desk has a call on 51 of the 62 FBS games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included. Where we could not clear our own confidence floor we say so plainly rather than quietly leaving the game out.
Every college football prediction we published for Week 10, 2026 is on the Week 10, 2026 board.
1. Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels prediction
Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The Georgia Bulldogs carry the second-ranked offence in the country into Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, but the Ole Miss Rebels hold the 8th-ranked offence and won the 2025 meeting 39-34. That collision of elite attacks makes Saturday must-see TV. A game we will not call is still a call.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers prediction
Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The LSU Tigers bring a top-five offence into Death Valley against an Alabama Crimson Tide team that took the 2025 meeting 20-9. Both sides arrive off a bye for a Saturday night in Baton Rouge. A game without a call on the record is still a call on what to watch.
3. Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers prediction
Texas Longhorns, 56% to win. We project them by 2.4.
Projected total 46.5.
Texas Longhorns, 56% to win, and that is the call. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even.
The Texas Longhorns bring the 7th-ranked defence into Memorial Stadium to face a Missouri Tigers offence that ranked 42nd. Missouri holds an offensive edge in their matchup with the Longhorns 12th-ranked defence, but Texas answers with the 16th-best offence. Defensive stops will settle a contest where both sides of the ball remain tight.
4. Miami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 65% to win. We project them by 6.3.
Projected total 59.3.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 65% is where the desk lands. That is comfortable without being close to safe.
Notre Dame Stadium hosts an elite elite showdown where offences rule both sides of the board. The Fighting Irish field the 3rd-ranked offence against Miami's 14th-ranked defence, giving Notre Dame the edge when they have the ball. The Hurricanes counter with the top-ranked offence against an 8th-ranked Irish defence. With both match-ups favoring the attack, expect high-scoring drives to dictate Saturday.
· Full Miami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction
5. Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats prediction
Iowa Hawkeyes, 56% to win. We project them by 2.3.
Projected total 43.1.
Our number here is Iowa Hawkeyes at 56%. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work.
Northwestern's 31st-ranked offence holding an edge over the 10th-ranked Iowa defence is where this conference game is decided. The Hawkeyes counter with the 62nd-ranked offence facing a Wildcats defence that ranked 26th. Both sides are even overall, making the battle between Northwestern's attack and Iowa's defensive front at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium the key split.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Miami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
- Our model makes Notre Dame Fighting Irish 65% to win against Miami Hurricanes. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest college football game in Week 10?
- Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 51 of the 62 FBS games being played. Anything our model cannot get above 55% confidence on is left off rather than published as a coin flip.
- Why is there no prediction for one of these games?
- Because our model landed in a band where our own record says we are unreliable. We publish the games we can stand behind and say nothing on the ones we cannot — the misses we do publish stay on the record permanently.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.