Week 10, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. The games we ran and decided not to call are here too, marked, so you can see what we left alone and why. Kickoffs run Tuesday, November 3 through Saturday, November 7.
50
games we call
12
we ran and left alone
0
settled so far
309-90
record, all season
77%
picks correct
Tuesday, November 3
Wednesday, November 4
Thursday, November 5
Friday, November 6
- Virginia Tech Hokies at SMU Mustangs
SMU Mustangs, 75% to win
Projected total 55.5
- New Mexico Lobos at Nevada Wolf Pack
New Mexico Lobos, 77% to win
Projected total 47.8
- TCU Horned Frogs at Arizona Wildcats
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- Iowa State Cyclones at Baylor Bears
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- Cincinnati Bearcats at Houston Cougars
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- South Florida Bulls at East Carolina PiratesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting IlliniToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
Saturday, November 7
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Tulane Green Wave
Tulane Green Wave, 72% to win
Projected total 48.4
- Florida State Seminoles at Boston College Eagles
Florida State Seminoles, 69% to win
Projected total 53.7
- Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange
Clemson Tigers, 57% to win
Projected total 50.3
- Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers
Texas Longhorns, 56% to win
Projected total 46.5
- Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue Boilermakers, 63% to win
Projected total 58.9
- Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack
Duke Blue Devils, 57% to win
Projected total 54.9
- Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers, 73% to win
Projected total 50
- Old Dominion Monarchs at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
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- Georgia State Panthers at App State Mountaineers
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- Delaware Blue Hens at Kennesaw State Owls
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- UL Monroe Warhawks at Arkansas State Red Wolves
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- Marshall Thundering Herd at Georgia Southern Eagles
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- Temple Owls at Navy Midshipmen
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- Charlotte 49ers at UAB Blazers
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- UCF Knights at Kansas Jayhawks
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- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Troy Trojans
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- Missouri State Bears at Florida International Panthers
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- Northern Illinois Huskies at San José State Spartans
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- Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green
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- Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers
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- Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs
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- South Alabama Jaguars at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
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- Boise State Broncos at Colorado State Rams
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- Kentucky Wildcats at Tennessee Volunteers
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- Sam Houston Bearkats at Jacksonville State Gamecocks
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- Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights
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- Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
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- Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines
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- Miami Hurricanes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 65% to win
Projected total 59.3
- Louisville Cardinals at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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- Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils
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- Oklahoma Sooners at Florida Gators
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- Liberty Flames at New Mexico State Aggies
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- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at UTEP Miners
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- Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
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- West Virginia Mountaineers at Texas Tech Red Raiders
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- Wyoming Cowboys at UNLV Rebels
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- Texas State Bobcats at Oregon State Beavers
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- BYU Cougars at Utah UtesNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- North Carolina Tar Heels at UConn HuskiesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- UCLA Bruins at Minnesota Golden GophersToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State WildcatsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina GamecocksToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU TigersToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Oregon Ducks at Ohio State BuckeyesNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Penn State Nittany Lions at Washington HuskiesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss RebelsToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Ohio Bobcats, 76% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at. Those games are still listed, greyed out, and each one has a page saying which gate stopped it. A pick we did not make is part of the record too.