Best College Football Games, Week 5 2026
The 5 biggest games of week 5, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and the games we have no call on are marked as such, not papered over.
Week 5 of the 2026 college football season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Tennessee Volunteers at 73% to win against Auburn Tigers. The desk has a call on 45 of the 56 FBS games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included. Where we could not clear our own confidence floor we say so plainly rather than quietly leaving the game out.
Every college football prediction we published for Week 5, 2026 is on the Week 5, 2026 board.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes prediction
Ohio State Buckeyes, 69% to win. We project them by 8.3.
Projected total 44.1.
Our pick landed: Ohio State Buckeyes won 31-14. We had them at 69%.
Ohio State Buckeyes at 69% is where the desk lands. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough.
The Ohio State Buckeyes offence is the separator. The Buckeyes field the fifth-ranked offence against a Hawkeyes defence that finished ninth. Iowa has the 37th-ranked offence, but they must face a Buckeyes defence that ranks first. Kinnick Stadium is famous because the whole stadium waves to the children's hospital after the first quarter, but the home side faces a steep climb on the field.
2. Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers prediction
Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The Florida Gators hold a 5-4 series lead since 2015, but the Missouri Tigers took the last meeting in 2023 with a tight 33-31 victory. Both teams bring top-twenty defences to Memorial Stadium in Columbia for this Saturday conference game. Passing on a coin flip is the only honest way to play the board.
3. BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs prediction
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The BYU Cougars travel off a bye to face the TCU Horned Frogs in a conference game that splits the difference on paper. The Cougars won the last meeting in 2025 by a margin of 31 points in a 44-13 blowout. With both sides of the ball graded so closely, a game we will not call is still a call.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction
Alabama Crimson Tide, 70% to win. We project them by 8.8.
Projected total 61.9.
Our pick landed: Alabama Crimson Tide won 56-23. We had them at 70%.
We make it Alabama Crimson Tide, 70% to win. That is roughly two times in three.
The Alabama Crimson Tide defence is the separator in this Saturday conference game. Mississippi State Bulldogs boast a potent offence ranked 13th, but they must find a way past an Alabama defence that ranks 10th. When the Crimson Tide have the ball, their 18th-ranked offence holds a clear advantage over a Bulldogs defence that struggled down at 56th.
· Full Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction
5. Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers prediction
Tennessee Volunteers, 73% to win. We project them by 10.3.
Projected total 54.6.
Our pick landed: Tennessee Volunteers won 24-14. We had them at 73%.
Our number here is Tennessee Volunteers at 73%. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough.
The Tennessee Volunteers offence ranks 3rd and holds the advantage over an Auburn Tigers defence ranked 20th. This matchup on the side of the ball where Tennessee attacks is what decides the game. Fans sailing to Neyland Stadium on the Tennessee River will watch this strength against strength battle dictate whether the Volunteers can avenge their 13-point loss from the 2020 meeting.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers?
- Our model makes Tennessee Volunteers 73% to win against Auburn Tigers. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest college football game in week 5?
- Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 45 of the 56 FBS games being played. Anything our model cannot get above 55% confidence on is left off rather than published as a coin flip.
- Why is there no prediction for one of these games?
- Because our model landed in a band where our own record says we are unreliable. We publish the games we can stand behind and say nothing on the ones we cannot — the misses we do publish stay on the record permanently.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.