Best College Football Games, Week 9, 2026
The 5 biggest games of Week 9, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and the games we have no call on are marked as such, not papered over.
Week 9 of the 2026 college football season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Ohio State Buckeyes at 76% to win against USC Trojans. The desk has a call on 48 of the 56 FBS games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included. Where we could not clear our own confidence floor we say so plainly rather than quietly leaving the game out.
Every college football prediction we published for Week 9, 2026 is on the Week 9, 2026 board.
1. Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs prediction — the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
Georgia Bulldogs, 74% to win. We project them by 10.5.
Projected total 57.7.
Our pick landed: Georgia Bulldogs won 27-8. We had them at 74%.
Our number here is Georgia Bulldogs at 74%. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough.
The Georgia Bulldogs defense is the real separator in this SEC game. Georgia brings the 2nd-ranked offence and 4th-ranked defence into Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while the Florida Gators field the 61st-ranked defence. The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party turns on Florida trying to score on an elite defensive group.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans prediction
Ohio State Buckeyes, 75% to win. We project them by 11.2.
Projected total 56.1.
Our pick missed: Ohio State Buckeyes lost 18-30. We had them at 75%, and it stays on the record.
Ohio State Buckeyes, 76% to win, and that is the call. That is roughly three times in four.
The Ohio State Buckeyes defence is the separator in this conference game. The Buckeyes carry the 1st-ranked defence to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum off a bye, while the USC Trojans field the 45th-ranked defence. That defensive gap gives Ohio State the edge against a USC offence ranked 7th, while the Buckeyes' own 6th-ranked offence faces little resistance.
3. Arizona Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 68% to win. We project them by 7.5.
Projected total 53.5.
Our pick landed: Texas Tech Red Raiders won 34-26. We had them at 68%.
We make it Texas Tech Red Raiders, 68% to win. That is roughly two times in three.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders hold the definitive edge on offence, bringing the 8th-ranked attack against an Arizona Wildcats defence that ranked 28th last season. Arizona can counter with their own 14th-ranked offence, but Texas Tech brings a sharper overall profile into Lubbock. Expect the Red Raiders to control the pace at Jones AT&T Stadium.
· Full Arizona Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders prediction
4. Baylor Bears at UCF Knights prediction
Baylor Bears at UCF Knights
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
Baylor won the last meeting 30-3 in 2025, beating UCF by 27 points. The Bears feature the 26th-ranked defence on the board, while the Knights score behind an 81st-ranked offence. A game with no number on the record still gives fans a clear window into how these two conference sides stack up.
5. South Carolina Gamecocks at Oklahoma Sooners prediction
Oklahoma Sooners, 67% to win. We project them by 7.1.
Projected total 45.4.
Our pick missed: Oklahoma Sooners lost 25-42. We had them at 67%, and it stays on the record.
Oklahoma Sooners at 67% is where the desk lands. That is comfortable without being close to safe.
The South Carolina Gamecocks offence is the dividing line in Memorial Stadium. The Gamecocks finished 29th on offence last season, and they face an Oklahoma Sooners defence that ranked 6th. Meanwhile, the Sooners struggled at 96th on offence, meaning South Carolina's 48th-ranked defence holds the upper hand on the other side of the ball.
· Full South Carolina Gamecocks at Oklahoma Sooners prediction
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans?
- Our model makes Ohio State Buckeyes 76% to win against USC Trojans. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest college football game in Week 9?
- Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 48 of the 56 FBS games being played. Anything our model cannot get above 55% confidence on is left off rather than published as a coin flip.
- Why is there no prediction for one of these games?
- Because our model landed in a band where our own record says we are unreliable. We publish the games we can stand behind and say nothing on the ones we cannot — the misses we do publish stay on the record permanently.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.