Week 9, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. The games we ran and decided not to call are here too, marked, so you can see what we left alone and why. Kickoffs run Tuesday, October 27 through Saturday, October 31.
47
games we call
9
we ran and left alone
47
settled so far
309-90
record, all season
77%
picks correct
Tuesday, October 27
Wednesday, October 28
Thursday, October 29
Friday, October 30
- Tulane Green Wave at Charlotte 49ersWon ✓
Tulane Green Wave, 88% to win
Projected total 48.2
- Kent State Golden Flashes at Sacramento State HornetsLost ✗
Kent State Golden Flashes, 58% to win
Projected total 50.4
- Baylor Bears at UCF KnightsToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
Saturday, October 31
- Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan BroncosWon ✓
Western Michigan Broncos, 84% to win
Projected total 45.3
- UAB Blazers at South Florida BullsWon ✓
South Florida Bulls, 87% to win
Projected total 51.4
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy MidshipmenWon ✓
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 96% to win
Projected total 55.9
- Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland TerrapinsWon ✓
Illinois Fighting Illini, 65% to win
Projected total 56.2
- Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa HawkeyesWon ✓
Iowa Hawkeyes, 72% to win
Projected total 37.2
- Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue DevilsWon ✓
Duke Blue Devils, 78% to win
Projected total 49.6
- SMU Mustangs at Syracuse OrangeLost ✗
SMU Mustangs, 70% to win
Projected total 57.6
- California Golden Bears at NC State WolfpackWon ✓
NC State Wolfpack, 73% to win
Projected total 57.1
- Arizona Wildcats at Texas Tech Red RaidersWon ✓
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 68% to win
Projected total 53.5
- Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsWon ✓
Michigan Wolverines, 77% to win
Projected total 51.3
- Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsWon ✓
Ole Miss Rebels, 80% to win
Projected total 53.7
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Old Dominion MonarchsLost ✗
Old Dominion Monarchs, 63% to win
Projected total 46.2
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Georgia State PanthersLost ✗
Georgia State Panthers, 67% to win
Projected total 58.1
- Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesLost ✗
Kansas State Wildcats, 67% to win
Projected total 52.7
- Temple Owls at East Carolina PiratesWon ✓
East Carolina Pirates, 75% to win
Projected total 52.8
- Stanford Cardinal at Louisville CardinalsWon ✓
Louisville Cardinals, 94% to win
Projected total 56.8
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UL Monroe WarhawksWon ✓
Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 63% to win
Projected total 54.8
- Florida International Panthers at Liberty FlamesWon ✓
Liberty Flames, 75% to win
Projected total 45
- UTEP Miners at North Dakota State BisonWon ✓
North Dakota State Bison, 94% to win
Projected total 47.8
- Colorado State Rams at Utah State AggiesWon ✓
Utah State Aggies, 72% to win
Projected total 60.5
- Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon DucksWon ✓
Oregon Ducks, 76% to win
Projected total 49.8
- Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana HoosiersWon ✓
Indiana Hoosiers, 94% to win
Projected total 45.3
- Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned FrogsWon ✓
TCU Horned Frogs, 63% to win
Projected total 48.3
- Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU CougarsWon ✓
BYU Cougars, 81% to win
Projected total 53.3
- Florida Gators vs Georgia BulldogsWon ✓
Georgia Bulldogs, 74% to win
Projected total 57.7
- Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWon ✓
Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 70% to win
Projected total 48.5
- Utah Utes at Cincinnati BearcatsWon ✓
Utah Utes, 73% to win
Projected total 57.3
- New Mexico Lobos at San José State SpartansWon ✓
New Mexico Lobos, 80% to win
Projected total 49.8
- Nevada Wolf Pack at UCLA BruinsWon ✓
UCLA Bruins, 94% to win
Projected total 47.7
- Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany LionsWon ✓
Penn State Nittany Lions, 88% to win
Projected total 55.8
- South Carolina Gamecocks at Oklahoma SoonersLost ✗
Oklahoma Sooners, 67% to win
Projected total 45.4
- App State Mountaineers at Georgia Southern EaglesWon ✓
Georgia Southern Eagles, 62% to win
Projected total 53.1
- Ohio State Buckeyes at USC TrojansLost ✗
Ohio State Buckeyes, 75% to win
Projected total 56.1
- Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar HeelsWon ✓
Miami Hurricanes, 87% to win
Projected total 51.6
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Pittsburgh PanthersWon ✓
Pittsburgh Panthers, 75% to win
Projected total 56.5
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas LonghornsWon ✓
Texas Longhorns, 85% to win
Projected total 55.3
- Missouri Tigers at Arkansas RazorbacksWon ✓
Missouri Tigers, 64% to win
Projected total 51
- Army Black Knights at Memphis TigersWon ✓
Memphis Tigers, 62% to win
Projected total 55.2
- Washington Huskies at Nebraska CornhuskersLost ✗
Nebraska Cornhuskers, 68% to win
Projected total 50.6
- Texas State Bobcats at Boise State BroncosWon ✓
Boise State Broncos, 78% to win
Projected total 62.2
- Northern Illinois Huskies at UNLV RebelsWon ✓
UNLV Rebels, 93% to win
Projected total 50.9
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at South Alabama JaguarsToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- UConn Huskies at Air Force FalconsToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Clemson Tigers at Florida State SeminolesNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Washington State Cougars at San Diego State AztecsToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State CyclonesNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State BulldogsToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 61% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at. Those games are still listed, greyed out, and each one has a page saying which gate stopped it. A pick we did not make is part of the record too.