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The fantasy calls of Week 1, 2026

By Sparks · Week 1, 2026 · graded

Justin Herbert leads our QBs at 16.7; Jahmyr Gibbs leads our RBs at 15.3; Ja'Marr Chase leads our WRs at 15.1; Trey McBride leads our TEs at 8.8. Half-PPR, all of it on the open board. What follows is the reasoning at each position: who the model has ahead, by how much, and where the gap is thin enough that we would rather call it a coin flip than invent a conviction.

Ruled out this week: Tua Tagovailoa (at Steelers), Michael Penix Jr. (at Steelers), Audric Estimé (at Lions), Brock Bowers (vs Dolphins). Each carries a status instead of a projection: we do not publish a number for a player we do not expect to play, and a player who sits is excluded from the record rather than scored as a zero.

Quarterbacks (QB): Justin Herbert first

Justin Herbert edges Patrick Mahomes by 1.0: a lean, not a landslide, and the ranges overlap plenty.

  1. Our projection has Justin Herbert at 16.7 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 1, 2026, our QB1. Actual: 13.3 half-PPR points.
  2. Patrick Mahomes is our QB1 at 15.7 against the Broncos. Actual: 21.7 half-PPR points.
  3. Jalen Hurts is our QB2 at 16.7 against the Commanders. Actual: 24.7 half-PPR points.

Every QB on the open board →

Running Backs (RB): Jahmyr Gibbs first

Jahmyr Gibbs is the clearest call we have at the position. Our numbers put him 5.0 ahead of J.K. Dobbins, and a gap that size rarely closes on matchup alone.

  1. Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 15.3 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our RB1. Actual: 31.1 half-PPR points.
  2. J.K. Dobbins is our RB1 at 10.3 at the Chiefs. Actual: 3.6 half-PPR points.
  3. Christian McCaffrey is our RB1 at 15.3 at the Rams. Actual: 11.3 half-PPR points.

Every RB on the open board →

Wide Receivers (WR): Ja'Marr Chase first

3.1 separates Ja'Marr Chase from Rashee Rice in our projections. At this scoring range that is a genuine gap rather than rounding.

  1. Our projection has Ja'Marr Chase at 15.1 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 1, 2026, our WR1. Actual: 2.2 half-PPR points.
  2. Rashee Rice is our WR1 at 12.0 against the Broncos. Actual: 8.9 half-PPR points.
  3. Amon-Ra St. Brown is our WR2 at 13.8 against the Saints. Actual: 23.7 half-PPR points.

Every WR on the open board →

Tight Ends (TE): Trey McBride first

Trey McBride edges Travis Kelce by 0.8: a lean, not a landslide, and the ranges overlap plenty.

  1. Our projection has Trey McBride at 8.8 half-PPR points at the Chargers in Week 1, 2026, our TE1. Actual: 20.0 half-PPR points.
  2. Travis Kelce is our TE1 at 8.0 against the Broncos. Actual: 8.6 half-PPR points.
  3. Sam LaPorta is our TE2 at 8.0 against the Saints. Actual: 7.3 half-PPR points.

Every TE on the open board →

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a DNP is excluded from the record, never counted as a zero. Nothing here is betting advice.

The full Week 1, 2026 board: every player, all three scoring formats →