NFL Fantasy Football Rankings & Projections — Week 1, 2026

Weekly projections for every startable quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end, in standard, half-PPR and full-PPR scoring — the full board, open, and graded against actual points the week after it publishes.

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180 of 180 players

Quarterbacks, Week 1, 2026 (43 players)

Quarterbacks fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected points, identical in all three scoring formats.
Rk	Player	Game	Pts	Range	Actual
1	Justin HerbertChargers	vs Cardinals	16.7	7.3–26.9	13.3
1	Patrick MahomesChiefs	vs Broncos	15.7	6.4–25.7	21.7
2	Jalen HurtsEagles	vs Commanders	16.7	7.3–26.9	24.7
3	Josh AllenBills	at Texans	16.6	7.2–26.7	35.7
3	Bo NixBroncos	at Chiefs	13.5	4.5–23.2	5.4
4	Dak PrescottCowboys	at Giants	16.3	6.9–26.4	14.4
5	Kyler MurrayVikings	vs Packers	16.3	6.9–26.4	-0.4
6	Brock Purdy49ers	at Rams	16.1	6.7–26.1	21.1
7	Jared GoffLions	vs Saints	15.7	6.4–25.7	16.4
8	Lamar JacksonRavens	at Colts	15.7	6.4–25.7	25.0
9	Joe BurrowBengals	vs Buccaneers	15.7	6.3–25.6	14.2
10	Caleb WilliamsBears	at Panthers	15.1	5.9–25.0	37.3
11	Jaxson DartGiants	vs Cowboys	14.9	5.7–24.8	26.6
12	Baker MayfieldBuccaneers	at Bengals	14.8	5.6–24.6	11.6
13	Trevor LawrenceJaguars	vs Browns	14.7	5.5–24.5	26.1
13	Matthew StaffordRams	vs 49ers	14.9	5.6–24.7	4.1
15	Tyler ShoughSaints	at Lions	14.2	5.1–24.0	23.2
15	Drake MayePatriots	at Seahawks	14.8	5.6–24.7	9.8
16	Jayden DanielsCommanders	at Eagles	14.0	4.9–23.8	17.7
20	Jordan LovePackers	at Vikings	13.9	4.8–23.6	19.5
21	Daniel JonesColts	vs Ravens	13.7	4.6–23.4	9.0
22	C.J. StroudTexans	vs Bills	13.6	4.5–23.3	16.5
24	Bryce YoungPanthers	vs Bears	13.1	4.1–22.7	31.4
27	Aaron RodgersSteelers	vs Falcons	12.9	3.9–22.5	12.5
27	Sam DarnoldSeahawks	vs Patriots	13.2	4.2–22.8	0.5
29	Jacoby BrissettCardinals	at Chargers	12.7	3.7–22.3	16.5
30	Kirk CousinsRaiders	vs Dolphins	11.8	3.0–21.3	13.8
33	Geno SmithJets	at Titans	11.4	2.6–20.8	9.3
34	Cam WardTitans	vs Jets	11.0	2.3–20.4	11.7
35	Brady CookDolphins	at Raiders	10.7	2.0–20.1	DNP
36	Shedeur SandersBrowns	at Jaguars	10.7	2.0–20.0	DNP
—	Justin FieldsChiefsBackup	vs Broncos	—	—	0.0
—	Joe FlaccoBengalsBackup	vs Buccaneers	—	—	—
—	J.J. McCarthyGiantsBackup	vs Packers	—	—	—
—	Carson WentzVikingsBackup	vs Packers	—	—	19.2
—	Spencer RattlerSaintsBackup	at Lions	—	—	—
—	Tyrod TaylorPackersBackup	at Vikings	—	—	—
—	Marcus MariotaCommandersBackup	at Eagles	—	—	—
—	Quinn EwersJaguarsBackup	vs Browns	—	—	—
—	Davis MillsTexansBackup	vs Bills	—	—	—
—	Mac Jones49ersBackup	at Rams	—	—	—
—	Tua TagovailoaFalconsOut	at Steelers	—	—	—
—	Michael Penix Jr.FalconsOut	at Steelers	—	—	—

Each call, in one sentence(22)

Our projection has Justin Herbert at 16.7 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 1, 2026, our QB1.
Our projection has Patrick Mahomes at 15.7 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 1, 2026, our QB1.
Our projection has Jalen Hurts at 16.7 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 1, 2026, our QB2.
Our projection has Josh Allen at 16.6 half-PPR points at the Texans in Week 1, 2026, our QB3.
Our projection has Bo Nix at 13.5 half-PPR points at the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026, our QB3.
Our projection has Dak Prescott at 16.3 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 1, 2026, our QB4.
Our projection has Kyler Murray at 16.3 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 1, 2026, our QB5.
Our projection has Brock Purdy at 16.1 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 1, 2026, our QB6.
Our projection has Jared Goff at 15.7 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our QB7.
Our projection has Lamar Jackson at 15.7 half-PPR points at the Colts in Week 1, 2026, our QB8.
Justin Fields is listed as a backup for the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Joe Flacco is listed as a backup for the Bengals in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
J.J. McCarthy is listed as a backup for the Giants in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Carson Wentz is listed as a backup for the Vikings in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Spencer Rattler is listed as a backup for the Saints in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Tyrod Taylor is listed as a backup for the Packers in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Marcus Mariota is listed as a backup for the Commanders in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Quinn Ewers is listed as a backup for the Jaguars in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Davis Mills is listed as a backup for the Texans in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Mac Jones is listed as a backup for the 49ers in Week 1, 2026. Only the projected starter carries a startable number on our board.
Tua Tagovailoa is ruled out for Week 1, 2026 at the Steelers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.
Michael Penix Jr. is ruled out for Week 1, 2026 at the Steelers. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Running Backs, Week 1, 2026 (52 players)

Running Backs fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
Rk	Player	Game	Std	Half-PPR	PPR	Range	Actual
1	Jahmyr GibbsLions	vs Saints	13.5	15.3	17.0	6.5–26.9	31.1
1	J.K. DobbinsBroncos	at Chiefs	9.6	10.3	11.1	2.8–20.3	3.6
1	Christian McCaffrey49ers	at Rams	13.0	15.3	17.6	6.5–27.0	11.3
2	Saquon BarkleyEagles	vs Commanders	12.3	13.4	14.5	5.1–24.4	8.5
2	Kenneth Walker IIIChiefs	vs Broncos	9.3	10.2	11.1	2.7–20.1	32.6
3	Chase BrownBengals	vs Buccaneers	11.5	13.2	14.9	4.9–24.1	16.3
3	RJ HarveyBroncos	at Chiefs	7.6	8.8	10.0	1.6–18.2	6.1
4	Omarion HamptonChargers	vs Cardinals	11.8	13.2	14.5	4.9–24.1	8.3
5	De'Von AchaneDolphins	at Raiders	11.0	12.7	14.5	4.6–23.5	8.6
6	James CookBills	at Texans	11.7	12.7	13.7	4.6–23.5	8.4
7	Jonathan TaylorColts	vs Ravens	11.5	12.7	13.9	4.5–23.4	23.6
8	Bijan RobinsonFalcons	at Steelers	10.7	12.5	14.4	4.4–23.3	27.3
9	Derrick HenryRavens	at Colts	11.8	12.5	13.2	4.4–23.2	34.8
10	Javonte WilliamsCowboys	at Giants	10.9	12.1	13.2	4.1–22.6	21.7
11	Bucky IrvingBuccaneers	at Bengals	10.8	12.0	13.3	4.1–22.6	16.8
11	Kyren WilliamsRams	vs 49ers	11.1	12.2	13.3	4.2–22.8	14.0
12	Ashton JeantyRaiders	vs Dolphins	10.5	11.9	13.3	4.0–22.4	29.7
13	Rico DowdleSteelers	vs Falcons	10.5	11.6	12.7	3.7–21.9	3.1
14	D'Andre SwiftBears	at Panthers	10.4	11.6	12.7	3.7–21.9	31.9
15	Jaylen WarrenSteelers	vs Falcons	10.4	11.5	12.6	3.6–21.8	7.8
16	Aaron JonesVikings	vs Packers	9.9	11.1	12.3	3.4–21.3	10.0
17	Josh JacobsPackers	at Vikings	9.7	10.8	11.9	3.1–20.9	DNP
18	Cam SkatteboGiants	vs Cowboys	9.3	10.7	12.0	3.0–20.8	14.1
19	Kimani VidalChargers	vs Cardinals	9.8	10.6	11.4	3.0–20.6	0.0
20	Breece HallJets	at Titans	9.4	10.5	11.6	2.9–20.6	18.8
21	Tony PollardTitans	vs Jets	9.5	10.5	11.5	2.9–20.5	3.9
23	Travis EtienneSaints	at Lions	9.1	10.2	11.3	2.7–20.1	11.3
25	Tyrone Tracy Jr.Giants	vs Cowboys	8.8	9.9	11.1	2.5–19.7	-0.6
26	Kenny GainwellBuccaneers	at Bengals	8.2	9.8	11.4	2.4–19.5	2.3
27	Isiah PachecoLions	vs Saints	8.8	9.7	10.6	2.3–19.5	DNP
28	Alvin KamaraSaintsQuestionable	at Lions	8.3	9.6	10.9	2.2–19.3	DNP
29	Kyle MonangaiBears	at Panthers	8.5	9.3	10.1	2.0–18.9	19.4
30	Woody MarksTexans	vs Bills	8.2	9.1	10.0	1.9–18.7	4.5
31	Quinshon JudkinsBrowns	at Jaguars	8.0	9.0	10.1	1.8–18.6	6.0
31	Zach CharbonnetSeahawks	vs Patriots	8.5	9.2	10.0	2.0–18.8	DNP
32	Jordan MasonVikings	vs Packers	8.4	9.0	9.7	1.8–18.5	11.9
33	TreVeyon HendersonPatriots	at Seahawks	8.2	9.2	10.2	2.0–18.8	DNP
34	Chuba HubbardPanthers	vs Bears	7.5	8.5	9.6	1.5–17.9	22.2
35	Tyjae SpearsTitans	vs Jets	7.2	8.5	9.9	1.4–17.9	3.4
36	Chris Rodriguez Jr.Jaguars	vs Browns	8.0	8.5	9.0	1.4–17.8	2.3
37	Trey BensonCardinals	at Chargers	7.1	8.4	9.8	1.4–17.8	DNP
38	David MontgomeryTexans	vs Bills	7.2	8.1	8.9	1.1–17.3	27.4
38	Rhamondre StevensonPatriots	at Seahawks	7.7	8.7	9.8	1.6–18.1	12.0
39	Rachaad WhiteCommanders	at Eagles	6.6	7.7	8.8	0.8–16.8	3.7
40	Jacory Croskey-MerrittCommanders	at Eagles	6.8	7.4	8.0	0.6–16.4	12.1
41	Devin SingletaryGiants	vs Cowboys	6.5	7.2	7.9	0.4–16.1	11.8
41	Blake CorumRams	vs 49ers	7.7	8.3	8.9	1.2–17.5	5.4
42	Bam KnightCardinals	at Chargers	6.0	7.1	8.1	0.3–15.9	0.0
43	Jaylen WrightDolphins	at Raiders	6.2	6.8	7.5	0.2–15.6	-0.1
44	Tyler AllgeierCardinals	at Chargers	6.0	6.6	7.3	0.0–15.3	8.0
47	Emanuel WilsonSeahawks	vs Patriots	7.1	7.7	8.4	0.9–16.8	0.3
—	Audric EstiméBrownsOut	at Lions	—	—	—	—	—

Each call, in one sentence(11)

Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 15.3 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our RB1.
Our projection has J.K. Dobbins at 10.3 half-PPR points at the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026, our RB1.
Our projection has Christian McCaffrey at 15.3 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 1, 2026, our RB1.
Our projection has Saquon Barkley at 13.4 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 1, 2026, our RB2.
Our projection has Kenneth Walker III at 10.2 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 1, 2026, our RB2.
Our projection has Chase Brown at 13.2 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 1, 2026, our RB3.
Our projection has RJ Harvey at 8.8 half-PPR points at the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026, our RB3.
Our projection has Omarion Hampton at 13.2 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 1, 2026, our RB4.
Our projection has De'Von Achane at 12.7 half-PPR points at the Raiders in Week 1, 2026, our RB5.
Our projection has James Cook at 12.7 half-PPR points at the Texans in Week 1, 2026, our RB6.
Audric Estimé is ruled out for Week 1, 2026 at the Lions. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Wide Receivers, Week 1, 2026 (56 players)

Wide Receivers fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
Rk	Player	Game	Std	Half-PPR	PPR	Range	Actual
1	Ja'Marr ChaseBengals	vs Buccaneers	11.8	15.1	18.4	6.3–26.9	2.2
1	Rashee RiceChiefs	vs Broncos	8.9	12.0	15.1	4.1–22.7	8.9
2	Amon-Ra St. BrownLions	vs Saints	10.6	13.8	17.0	5.4–25.1	23.7
2	Courtland SuttonBroncos	at Chiefs	6.8	8.9	11.1	1.9–18.4	2.1
2	Puka NacuaRams	vs 49ers	11.0	14.1	17.3	5.7–25.6	9.9
3	CeeDee LambCowboys	at Giants	9.5	12.3	15.0	4.3–23.0	12.9
3	Jaylen WaddleBroncos	at Chiefs	6.5	8.8	11.0	1.8–18.2	0.7
4	Troy FranklinBroncos	at Chiefs	5.5	7.5	9.5	0.9–16.5	0.5
4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawks	vs Patriots	9.3	12.3	15.3	4.4–23.1	22.2
5	Justin JeffersonVikings	vs Packers	9.2	11.8	14.3	3.9–22.3	27.2
5	Xavier WorthyChiefs	vs Broncos	5.5	7.3	9.0	0.7–16.1	3.3
6	George PickensCowboys	at Giants	9.2	11.6	14.0	3.8–22.1	4.3
7	Chris OlaveSaints	at Lions	8.6	11.4	14.1	3.7–21.8	23.2
8	Nico CollinsTexans	vs Bills	8.0	10.5	12.9	3.0–20.5	17.7
9	Malik NabersGiantsQuestionable	vs Cowboys	7.9	10.4	12.9	3.0–20.5	9.9
9	Davante AdamsRams	vs 49ers	8.4	10.8	13.3	3.3–21.0	4.1
10	Zay FlowersRavens	at Colts	7.9	10.2	12.6	2.8–20.2	23.5
10	Mike Evans49ers	at Rams	8.2	10.5	12.8	3.0–20.6	13.9
11	Ladd McConkeyChargers	vs Cardinals	7.9	10.1	12.4	2.8–20.1	16.7
11	A.J. BrownPatriots	at Seahawks	8.2	10.7	13.1	3.2–20.8	4.1
12	Tee HigginsBengals	vs Buccaneers	7.9	10.0	12.2	2.7–19.9	7.4
13	Jameson WilliamsLions	vs Saints	7.9	9.9	11.9	2.6–19.8	6.5
14	DeVonta SmithEagles	vs Commanders	7.5	9.9	12.2	2.6–19.7	6.8
15	Drake LondonFalcons	at Steelers	7.1	9.7	12.3	2.5–19.5	4.5
16	Rome OdunzeBearsQuestionable	at Panthers	7.5	9.5	11.6	2.3–19.3	6.2
17	Quentin JohnstonChargers	vs Cardinals	7.4	9.4	11.4	2.3–19.1	2.7
18	Emeka EgbukaBuccaneers	at Bengals	7.4	9.4	11.4	2.2–19.1	8.8
19	Wan'Dale RobinsonTitans	vs Jets	6.6	9.3	12.0	2.2–18.9	6.3
20	Tetairoa McMillanPanthers	vs Bears	7.1	9.2	11.4	2.1–18.8	8.0
21	Keenan AllenColts	vs Ravens	6.7	9.1	11.5	2.0–18.7	6.2
22	Jakobi MeyersJaguars	vs Browns	6.8	9.1	11.4	2.0–18.7	11.2
23	Michael WilsonCardinals	at Chargers	6.7	9.0	11.3	2.0–18.5	8.1
24	DK MetcalfSteelers	vs Falcons	6.9	9.0	11.0	1.9–18.5	6.0
26	Brian Thomas Jr.Jaguars	vs Browns	6.9	8.9	11.0	1.9–18.4	5.5
26	Deebo Samuel Sr.49ers	at Rams	6.9	9.1	11.2	2.0–18.6	15.0
27	Chris Godwin Jr.Buccaneers	at Bengals	6.7	8.8	11.0	1.8–18.3	6.3
28	Khalil ShakirBills	at Texans	6.5	8.8	11.1	1.8–18.3	7.0
30	Garrett WilsonJets	at Titans	6.3	8.7	11.0	1.7–18.0	10.9
31	Jauan JenningsVikings	vs Packers	6.5	8.5	10.6	1.6–17.9	0.0
32	Michael PittmanSteelers	vs Falcons	6.2	8.5	10.8	1.6–17.9	7.3
33	Jordan AddisonVikings	vs Packers	6.4	8.3	10.2	1.5–17.6	0.0
34	Alec PierceColts	vs Ravens	6.6	8.3	10.0	1.4–17.5	8.1
35	Parker WashingtonJaguars	vs Browns	6.3	8.3	10.3	1.4–17.5	16.8
35	Ricky Pearsall49ers	at Rams	6.5	8.6	10.6	1.6–17.9	DNP
36	Christian WatsonPackers	at Vikings	6.4	8.2	10.1	1.4–17.5	29.7
37	Stefon DiggsCommanders	at Eagles	6.0	8.2	10.5	1.4–17.4	13.5
38	Terry McLaurinCommanders	at Eagles	6.1	8.1	10.1	1.3–17.3	2.4
39	Josh DownsColts	vs Ravens	5.7	7.7	9.7	1.0–16.7	4.7
40	Marvin Harrison Jr.Texans	at Chargers	5.8	7.7	9.5	1.0–16.7	3.8
41	DJ MooreBills	at Texans	5.8	7.6	9.4	1.0–16.6	18.5
43	Tre TuckerRaiders	vs Dolphins	5.5	7.3	9.1	0.7–16.2	3.7
45	Jerry JeudyBrowns	at Jaguars	5.2	7.1	9.0	0.6–15.9	3.6
46	Calvin RidleyTitans	vs Jets	5.3	7.1	8.9	0.6–15.9	0.0
46	Rashid ShaheedSeahawks	vs Patriots	6.1	8.0	9.8	1.2–17.1	0.9
47	Elic AyomanorTitans	vs Jets	5.1	6.7	8.4	0.3–15.4	7.6
52	Romeo DoubsPatriots	at Seahawks	5.4	7.3	9.2	0.7–16.1	0.0

Each call, in one sentence(10)

Our projection has Ja'Marr Chase at 15.1 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 1, 2026, our WR1.
Our projection has Rashee Rice at 12.0 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 1, 2026, our WR1.
Our projection has Amon-Ra St. Brown at 13.8 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our WR2.
Our projection has Courtland Sutton at 8.9 half-PPR points at the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026, our WR2.
Our projection has Puka Nacua at 14.1 half-PPR points against the 49ers in Week 1, 2026, our WR2.
Our projection has CeeDee Lamb at 12.3 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 1, 2026, our WR3.
Our projection has Jaylen Waddle at 8.8 half-PPR points at the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026, our WR3.
Our projection has Troy Franklin at 7.5 half-PPR points at the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026, our WR4.
Our projection has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 12.3 half-PPR points against the Patriots in Week 1, 2026, our WR4.
Our projection has Justin Jefferson at 11.8 half-PPR points against the Packers in Week 1, 2026, our WR5.

Tight Ends, Week 1, 2026 (29 players)

Tight Ends fantasy projections for Week 1, 2026, ranked by projected half-PPR points.
Rk	Player	Game	Std	Half-PPR	PPR	Range	Actual
1	Trey McBrideCardinals	at Chargers	6.1	8.8	11.4	2.5–17.4	20.0
1	Travis KelceChiefs	vs Broncos	5.9	8.0	10.1	2.0–16.1	8.6
2	Sam LaPortaLions	vs Saints	6.1	8.0	10.0	2.1–16.2	7.3
2	Evan EngramBroncos	at Chiefs	4.1	5.9	7.7	0.7–12.9	12.3
2	George Kittle49ers	at Rams	6.5	8.7	10.8	2.4–17.2	2.2
4	Dallas GoedertEagles	vs Commanders	5.8	7.7	9.7	1.9–15.8	21.7
5	Oronde Gadsden IIChargers	vs Cardinals	5.7	7.5	9.3	1.7–15.4	4.2
6	Tucker KraftPackers	at Vikings	5.5	7.5	9.4	1.7–15.4	8.0
7	Jake FergusonCowboys	at Giants	5.3	7.3	9.4	1.6–15.2	1.6
8	Tyler WarrenColts	vs Ravens	5.3	7.3	9.4	1.6–15.1	8.8
9	Colston LovelandBears	at Panthers	5.4	7.3	9.1	1.6–15.0	0.0
10	Juwan JohnsonSaints	at Lions	5.1	7.0	9.0	1.4–14.7	12.9
11	Brenton StrangeJaguars	vs Browns	5.1	7.0	8.9	1.4–14.6	9.3
12	Dalton SchultzTexans	vs Bills	4.9	6.9	9.0	1.4–14.5	5.5
13	Mark AndrewsRavens	at Colts	5.2	6.9	8.6	1.4–14.5	6.9
14	Kyle PittsFalcons	at Steelers	4.8	6.8	8.8	1.3–14.4	0.0
15	David NjokuChargers	vs Cardinals	5.1	6.8	8.5	1.3–14.3	8.3
16	Cade OttonBuccaneers	at Bengals	4.8	6.7	8.6	1.2–14.1	4.1
17	Theo JohnsonGiants	vs Cowboys	4.7	6.5	8.3	1.1–13.8	1.4
18	T.J. HockensonVikings	vs Packers	4.6	6.4	8.1	1.0–13.7	11.6
19	Dalton KincaidBills	at Texans	4.5	6.3	8.0	1.0–13.5	15.5
20	Harold Fannin Jr.Browns	at Jaguars	4.2	6.3	8.3	1.0–13.5	3.1
20	Hunter HenryPatriots	at Seahawks	4.6	6.5	8.3	1.1–13.8	4.1
20	Colby ParkinsonRams	vs 49ers	4.7	6.4	8.1	1.1–13.7	1.1
21	Chig OkonkwoCommanders	at Eagles	4.1	5.9	7.7	0.8–13.0	2.6
23	Mason TaylorJets	at Titans	3.9	5.7	7.6	0.6–12.7	0.8
24	Jake Tonges49ers	at Rams	4.4	6.2	8.0	0.9–13.4	0.0
26	AJ BarnerSeahawks	vs Patriots	4.4	6.2	7.9	0.9–13.4	2.3
—	Brock BowersRaidersOut	vs Dolphins	—	—	—	—	—

Each call, in one sentence(11)

Our projection has Trey McBride at 8.8 half-PPR points at the Chargers in Week 1, 2026, our TE1.
Our projection has Travis Kelce at 8.0 half-PPR points against the Broncos in Week 1, 2026, our TE1.
Our projection has Sam LaPorta at 8.0 half-PPR points against the Saints in Week 1, 2026, our TE2.
Our projection has Evan Engram at 5.9 half-PPR points at the Chiefs in Week 1, 2026, our TE2.
Our projection has George Kittle at 8.7 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 1, 2026, our TE2.
Our projection has Dallas Goedert at 7.7 half-PPR points against the Commanders in Week 1, 2026, our TE4.
Our projection has Oronde Gadsden II at 7.5 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 1, 2026, our TE5.
Our projection has Tucker Kraft at 7.5 half-PPR points at the Vikings in Week 1, 2026, our TE6.
Our projection has Jake Ferguson at 7.3 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 1, 2026, our TE7.
Our projection has Tyler Warren at 7.3 half-PPR points against the Ravens in Week 1, 2026, our TE8.
Brock Bowers is ruled out for Week 1, 2026 against the Dolphins. No projection publishes for a player who is not expected to play.

Start or sit: compare two players

Pick the two you are torn between. The gap is our projection’s, and the rows underneath are the components that produce it. Free, like every number on this board.

Player APlayer BScoring

Our projection has Justin Herbert ahead by 1 Half-PPR points, 16.7 to 15.7.

Justin Herbert compared with Patrick Mahomes, Half-PPR scoring.
	Justin Herbert	Patrick Mahomes	Gap
Projected Half-PPR	16.7	15.7	1
Range (floor–ceiling)	7.3–26.9	6.4–25.7	—
Positional rank	QB1	QB1	—
This week	vs Cardinals	vs Broncos	—
Pass yards	246.5	244.1	2.4
Rush yards	22.9	22.2	0.7
Carries	4.5	4.1	0.4
Pass TDs	1.7	1.4	0.3
Interceptions	0.8	0.8	0
Rush TDs	0.2	0.2	0

Components are the projection’s own expected stat line, not last week’s box score. Both numbers assume the player takes the field: the model does not forecast whether he is active, which is why the injury row is there and why a player ruled out carries a status instead of a number.

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How these projections work

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

Kickers and team defenses are not on the board yet — the model projects the four positions where snaps and usage separate startable players. Team defenses are planned to join around Week 4, kickers later in the season, and both appear here first when they do.