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The fantasy calls of Week 3, 2026

By Sparks · Week 3, 2026 · graded

Josh Allen leads our QBs at 23.6; Kenneth Walker III leads our RBs at 21.7; Amon-Ra St. Brown leads our WRs at 17.9; Trey McBride leads our TEs at 11.9. Half-PPR, all of it on the open board. What follows is the reasoning at each position: who the model has ahead, by how much, and where the gap is thin enough that we would rather call it a coin flip than invent a conviction.

Ruled out this week: Jayden Daniels (vs Seahawks), Caleb Williams (vs Eagles), Rico Dowdle (vs Bengals), Nico Collins (at Colts), Alec Pierce (vs Texans), Chig Okonkwo (vs Seahawks), Mason Taylor (at Lions), Dallas Goedert (at Bears). Each carries a status instead of a projection: we do not publish a number for a player we do not expect to play, and a player who sits is excluded from the record rather than scored as a zero.

Quarterbacks (QB): Josh Allen first

The top of the position is not close this week: Josh Allen clears Jalen Hurts by 7.2 in our numbers, which is a real gap at this scoring range.

  1. Our projection has Josh Allen at 23.6 half-PPR points against the Chargers in Week 3, 2026, our QB1. Actual: 17.0 half-PPR points.
  2. Jalen Hurts is our QB1 at 16.4 at the Bears. Actual: 12.6 half-PPR points.
  3. Patrick Mahomes is our QB2 at 19.5 at the Dolphins. Actual: 15.9 half-PPR points.

Every QB on the open board →

Running Backs (RB): Kenneth Walker III first

Kenneth Walker III is the clearest call we have at the position. Our numbers put him 9.8 ahead of D'Andre Swift, and a gap that size rarely closes on matchup alone.

  1. Our projection has Kenneth Walker III at 21.7 half-PPR points at the Dolphins in Week 3, 2026, our RB1. Actual: 20.3 half-PPR points.
  2. D'Andre Swift is our RB1 at 11.9 against the Eagles. Actual: 9.8 half-PPR points.
  3. Jahmyr Gibbs is our RB2 at 21.5 against the Jets. Actual: 37.9 half-PPR points.

Every RB on the open board →

Wide Receivers (WR): Amon-Ra St. Brown first

6.1 separates Amon-Ra St. Brown from DeVonta Smith in our projections. At this scoring range that is a genuine gap rather than rounding.

  1. Our projection has Amon-Ra St. Brown at 17.9 half-PPR points against the Jets in Week 3, 2026, our WR1. Actual: 9.9 half-PPR points.
  2. DeVonta Smith is our WR1 at 11.8 at the Bears. Actual: 9.5 half-PPR points.
  3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is our WR2 at 14.8 at the Commanders. Actual: 30.4 half-PPR points.

Every WR on the open board →

Tight Ends (TE): Trey McBride first

The top of the position is not close this week: Trey McBride clears Colston Loveland by 7.5 in our numbers, which is a real gap at this scoring range.

  1. Our projection has Trey McBride at 11.9 half-PPR points at the 49ers in Week 3, 2026, our TE1. Actual: 12.0 half-PPR points.
  2. Colston Loveland is our TE1 at 4.4 against the Eagles. Actual: 5.1 half-PPR points.
  3. Travis Kelce is our TE2 at 10.7 at the Dolphins. Actual: 12.9 half-PPR points.

Every TE on the open board →

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

The full Week 3, 2026 board: every player, all three scoring formats →