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The fantasy calls of Week 4, 2026

By Sparks · Week 4, 2026 · graded

Josh Allen leads our QBs at 23.0; Jahmyr Gibbs leads our RBs at 22.6; Amon-Ra St. Brown leads our WRs at 16.8; Trey McBride leads our TEs at 13.9. Half-PPR, all of it on the open board. What follows is the reasoning at each position: who the model has ahead, by how much, and where the gap is thin enough that we would rather call it a coin flip than invent a conviction.

Ruled out this week: Baker Mayfield (vs Packers), Jayden Daniels (vs Colts), Caleb Williams (vs Jets), Rachaad White (vs Colts), Breece Hall (at Bears), Zach Charbonnet (vs Chargers), Justin Jefferson (vs Dolphins), DeVonta Smith (vs Rams), and 2 more on the board. Each carries a status instead of a projection: we do not publish a number for a player we do not expect to play, and a player who sits is excluded from the record rather than scored as a zero.

Quarterbacks (QB): Josh Allen first

The top of the position is not close this week: Josh Allen clears Tyler Shough by 4.1 in our numbers, which is a real gap at this scoring range.

  1. Our projection has Josh Allen at 23.0 half-PPR points against the Patriots in Week 4, 2026, our QB1. Actual: 18.5 half-PPR points.
  2. Tyler Shough is our QB1 at 18.9 against the Falcons. Actual: 15.9 half-PPR points.
  3. Jared Goff is our QB3 at 17.4 at the Panthers. Actual: 20.5 half-PPR points.

Every QB on the open board →

Running Backs (RB): Jahmyr Gibbs first

Jahmyr Gibbs is the clearest call we have at the position. Our numbers put him 3.7 ahead of Bijan Robinson, and a gap that size rarely closes on matchup alone.

  1. Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 22.6 half-PPR points at the Panthers in Week 4, 2026, our RB1. Actual: 15.7 half-PPR points.
  2. Bijan Robinson is our RB1 at 18.9 at the Saints. Actual: 27.2 half-PPR points.
  3. Jonathan Taylor is our RB2 at 20.8 at the Commanders. Actual: 22.2 half-PPR points.

Every RB on the open board →

Wide Receivers (WR): Amon-Ra St. Brown first

1.5 is what our projections put between Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave. Enough to order them, not enough to be confident about it.

  1. Our projection has Amon-Ra St. Brown at 16.8 half-PPR points at the Panthers in Week 4, 2026, our WR1. Actual: 11.5 half-PPR points.
  2. Chris Olave is our WR1 at 15.3 against the Falcons. Actual: 15.6 half-PPR points.
  3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is our WR2 at 16.6 against the Chargers. Actual: 10.1 half-PPR points.

Every WR on the open board →

Tight Ends (TE): Trey McBride first

The top of the position is not close this week: Trey McBride clears Juwan Johnson by 5.7 in our numbers, which is a real gap at this scoring range.

  1. Our projection has Trey McBride at 13.9 half-PPR points at the Giants in Week 4, 2026, our TE1. Actual: 6.6 half-PPR points.
  2. Juwan Johnson is our TE1 at 8.2 against the Falcons. Actual: 8.9 half-PPR points.
  3. Brock Bowers is our TE2 at 11.0 against the Chiefs. Actual: 17.6 half-PPR points.

Every TE on the open board →

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

The full Week 4, 2026 board: every player, all three scoring formats →