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The fantasy calls of Week 5, 2026

By Sparks · Week 5, 2026 · graded

Josh Allen leads our QBs at 22.0; Jahmyr Gibbs leads our RBs at 23.4; CeeDee Lamb leads our WRs at 19.0; Trey McBride leads our TEs at 14.6. Half-PPR, all of it on the open board. What follows is the reasoning at each position: who the model has ahead, by how much, and where the gap is thin enough that we would rather call it a coin flip than invent a conviction.

Ruled out this week: Baker Mayfield (at Cowboys), Marcus Mariota (vs Giants), Lamar Jackson (at Falcons), Saquon Barkley (at Jaguars), Breece Hall (vs Browns), Zach Charbonnet (vs 49ers), Kyle Monangai (at Packers), Stefon Diggs (vs Giants), and 4 more on the board. Each carries a status instead of a projection: we do not publish a number for a player we do not expect to play, and a player who sits is excluded from the record rather than scored as a zero.

Quarterbacks (QB): Josh Allen first

Josh Allen edges Jared Goff by 1.6: a lean, not a landslide, and the ranges overlap plenty.

  1. Our projection has Josh Allen at 22.0 half-PPR points at the Rams in Week 5, 2026, our QB1. Actual: 30.5 half-PPR points.
  2. Jared Goff is our QB2 at 20.4 at the Cardinals. Actual: 28.9 half-PPR points.
  3. Matthew Stafford is our QB2 at 19.6 against the Bills. Actual: 27.3 half-PPR points.

Every QB on the open board →

Running Backs (RB): Jahmyr Gibbs first

Jahmyr Gibbs is the clearest call we have at the position. Our numbers put him 6.7 ahead of Kyren Williams, and a gap that size rarely closes on matchup alone.

  1. Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 23.4 half-PPR points at the Cardinals in Week 5, 2026, our RB1. Actual: 35.2 half-PPR points.
  2. Kyren Williams is our RB1 at 16.7 against the Bills. Actual: 16.6 half-PPR points.
  3. Bijan Robinson is our RB2 at 20.2 against the Ravens. Actual: 13.8 half-PPR points.

Every RB on the open board →

Wide Receivers (WR): CeeDee Lamb first

1.0 is what our projections put between CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Enough to order them, not enough to be confident about it.

  1. Our projection has CeeDee Lamb at 19.0 half-PPR points against the Buccaneers in Week 5, 2026, our WR1. Actual: 1.9 half-PPR points.
  2. Amon-Ra St. Brown is our WR1 at 18.0 at the Cardinals. Actual: 9.9 half-PPR points.
  3. Puka Nacua is our WR1 at 16.6 against the Bills. Actual: 29.2 half-PPR points.

Every WR on the open board →

Tight Ends (TE): Trey McBride first

The top of the position is not close this week: Trey McBride clears Dalton Kincaid by 7.7 in our numbers, which is a real gap at this scoring range.

  1. Our projection has Trey McBride at 14.6 half-PPR points against the Lions in Week 5, 2026, our TE1. Actual: 17.1 half-PPR points.
  2. Dalton Kincaid is our TE1 at 6.9 at the Rams. Actual: 3.2 half-PPR points.
  3. Sam LaPorta is our TE2 at 11.7 at the Cardinals. Actual: 17.3 half-PPR points.

Every TE on the open board →

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

The full Week 5, 2026 board: every player, all three scoring formats →