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The fantasy calls of Week 9, 2026

By Sparks · Week 9, 2026

Josh Allen leads our QBs at 20.5; Jahmyr Gibbs leads our RBs at 26.6; Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads our WRs at 18.9; Trey McBride leads our TEs at 13.1. Half-PPR, all of it on the open board. What follows is the reasoning at each position: who the model has ahead, by how much, and where the gap is thin enough that we would rather call it a coin flip than invent a conviction.

Quarterbacks (QB): Josh Allen first

Josh Allen and Brock Purdy are 0.2 apart, which is inside our own error bar. In our numbers that is a tie, and the matchup is doing more work than the projection.

  1. Our projection has Josh Allen at 20.5 half-PPR points at the Vikings in Week 9, 2026, our QB1.
  2. Brock Purdy is our QB2 at 20.3 against the Raiders.
  3. Dak Prescott is our QB3 at 19.5 at the Colts.

Every QB on the open board →

Running Backs (RB): Jahmyr Gibbs first

Jahmyr Gibbs is the clearest call we have at the position. Our numbers put him 7.0 ahead of Kenneth Walker III, and a gap that size rarely closes on matchup alone.

  1. Our projection has Jahmyr Gibbs at 26.6 half-PPR points at the Dolphins in Week 9, 2026, our RB1.
  2. Kenneth Walker III is our RB2 at 19.6 against the Jets.
  3. Bijan Robinson is our RB3 at 18.2 against the Bengals.

Every RB on the open board →

Wide Receivers (WR): Jaxon Smith-Njigba first

0.1 between Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb is not a gap our model can defend. The top two are a tie in our numbers.

  1. Our projection has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 18.9 half-PPR points against the Cardinals in Week 9, 2026, our WR1.
  2. CeeDee Lamb is our WR2 at 18.8 at the Colts.
  3. Puka Nacua is our WR3 at 18.3 at the Commanders.

Every WR on the open board →

Tight Ends (TE): Trey McBride first

Trey McBride and Brock Bowers are 0.2 apart, which is inside our own error bar. In our numbers that is a tie, and the matchup is doing more work than the projection.

  1. Our projection has Trey McBride at 13.1 half-PPR points at the Seahawks in Week 9, 2026, our TE1.
  2. Brock Bowers is our TE2 at 12.9 at the 49ers.
  3. George Kittle is our TE3 at 12.6 against the Raiders.

Every TE on the open board →

Projections are our own model's output: recent role and usage, shrunk efficiency rates, and the game's scoring environment. The range beside each number is modeled, not a fixed band: the 10th to 90th percentile of that player's outcomes for the week, fit from how projections like his have actually landed. Every projection is graded against actual fantasy points the week after it publishes. Every number is conditional on the player playing: a player ruled out carries his status instead of a projection, and a player who takes no offensive snap is excluded from the record rather than counted as a zero. One snap is enough to be graded — a player who was on the field is scored on what he actually did, including nothing at all. Nothing here is betting advice.

The full Week 9, 2026 board: every player, all three scoring formats →