Best NFL Games, Week 1 2026
The 5 biggest games of week 1, with our win probability on every one.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and nothing here is edited after the fact.
- Los Angeles Rams-181
- Seattle Seahawks-161
- Denver Broncos+131
- Minnesota Vikings-110
- Houston Texans+108
Consensus across books when this was published, September 8, 2026. Prices move; we do not update them here.
Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Seattle Seahawks at 68% to win against New England Patriots. The desk has a call on 16 of the 16 games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included.
Every NFL prediction we published for Week 1, 2026 is on the Week 1, 2026 board.
1. San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams prediction — NFL Melbourne Game
Los Angeles Rams, 63% to win. We project them by 4.2.
Projected total 50.8.
Our pick missed: Los Angeles Rams lost by 20. We had them at 63%, and it stays on the record.
We make it Los Angeles Rams, 63% to win. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty. We project them by 4.2. We have it as a shootout.
The Los Angeles Rams hold the decisive edge with their second-ranked offence facing a San Francisco 49ers defence that finished last season ranked 24th. Los Angeles also threw the ball at a third-ranked rate, which spells trouble for a weak San Francisco pass defence. This division game has the makings of a shootout inside the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
2. New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks prediction
Seattle Seahawks, 68% to win. We project them by 6.1.
Projected total 44.6.
Our pick landed: Seattle Seahawks won by 3. We had them at 68%.
Seattle Seahawks at 68% is where the desk lands. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. We project them by 6.1.
The Seattle Seahawks field a defence ranked 2nd overall and 2nd against the pass, which counters a New England Patriots offence that finished 7th. With both sides evenly matched across the board, the difference lies at Lumen Field, a venue built to trap noise. Expect a tight struggle to reach the projected 44.6 points.
3. Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs prediction
Denver Broncos, 50% to win. We project them by 0.1.
Projected total 42.4.
Our pick missed: Denver Broncos lost by 21. We had them at 50%, and it stays on the record.
Denver Broncos, 50% to win, and that is the call. That is a coin flip with a thumb on one side of it. We have it as a grind.
Denver brings the 7th-ranked defence to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, a venue about as loud as a stadium in this sport gets. That defence holds the advantage over a Kansas City offence that ranked 19th. With the overall matchup graded even, this Monday division game shapes up as a low-scoring battle where the Broncos try to stifle the Chiefs.
4. Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings prediction
Minnesota Vikings, 56% to win. We project them by 1.8.
Projected total 44.2.
Our pick landed: Minnesota Vikings won by 17. We had them at 56%.
We make it Minnesota Vikings, 56% to win. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. We project them by 1.8.
The Green Bay Packers bring the top-ranked passing game from last season into this division game, but the Minnesota Vikings counter with a pass defence that ranked third. That strength-on-strength matchup is the separator. Minnesota struggled to move the ball last year, finishing twenty-eighth in offence, but their third-ranked overall defence can keep this low-scoring and close.
5. Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans prediction
Houston Texans, 55% to win. We project them by 1.5.
Projected total 46.7.
Our pick missed: Houston Texans lost by 5. We had them at 55%, and it stays on the record.
Our number here is Houston Texans at 55%. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. We project them by 1.5.
The Buffalo Bills bring the top-ranked offence from last season to face a Houston Texans defence that finished first overall. Buffalo also ranked second in passing, but Houston held the league's best pass defence. That strength against strength is the focal point, while the Texans offence tries to find room against a Buffalo defence that finished thirteenth.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks?
- Our model makes Seattle Seahawks 68% to win against New England Patriots. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest NFL game in week 1?
- San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 16 of the 16 games being played. Our NFL board carries a number on every game on the slate rather than withholding the close ones, and every one of them is graded afterwards, win or lose.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.