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Week 1, 2026 NFL picks

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Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win, our probability, and our projected spread for context. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Wednesday, September 9 through Monday, September 14.

16

games on the board

0

settled so far

—

nothing graded yet

—

picks correct

16 of 16 games

Wednesday, September 91game

Thursday, September 101game

Sunday, September 1313games

Monday, September 141game

How to read this board

Chicago Bears, 57% to win. We project them by 2.3. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.

Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. The number next to a pick is our own projected spread, written the way you already read one: -6 means we project that side to win by six. It is context, not a call, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.

NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.