Every game on this week’s slate — the side we pick to win and our probability. There is always a pick side, so a coin-flip game shows up here as exactly that: a number just past 50%. Kickoffs run Wednesday, September 9 through Monday, September 14.
14
games on the board
14
settled so far
64-34
record, all season
65%
picks correct
Wednesday, September 9
Thursday, September 10
Sunday, September 13
- New York Jets at Tennessee TitansLost ✗
Tennessee Titans, 62% to win
Projected total 46.3
- Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersWon ✓
Pittsburgh Steelers, 60% to win
Projected total 45.1
- Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsWon ✓
Jacksonville Jaguars, 80% to win
Projected total 44.4
- Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsWon ✓
Baltimore Ravens, 50% to win
Projected total 49
- Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansLost ✗
Houston Texans, 55% to win
Projected total 46.7
- New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsWon ✓
Detroit Lions, 71% to win
Projected total 47.3
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsWon ✓
Cincinnati Bengals, 54% to win
Projected total 49.3
- Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersWon ✓
Chicago Bears, 57% to win
Projected total 46.6
- Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesWon ✓
Philadelphia Eagles, 72% to win
Projected total 45.4
- Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsWon ✓
Minnesota Vikings, 56% to win
Projected total 44.2
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersLost ✗
Los Angeles Chargers, 70% to win
Projected total 45.7
- Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
Monday, September 14
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Seattle Seahawks, 68% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 63% call that loses is a 63% call that lost, not a bad model.
Every game on the slate gets a call. There is always a pick side, so the closest games publish just past 50% — and our confidence is capped at 90%, the edge of the calibration table our model was validated on. One number per row, and it is the probability: a signed spread sitting beside it read as an against-the-spread call, which is not what this desk publishes. We do project a margin, it is on the game page where there is room to label it, and no sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
NFL games can end in a tie — one or two a season do. A tie is void: it shows on the board as what it is, and it never counts for or against the record.