The five fights worth watching at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Who wins, how each one likely ends, and the call we make loudest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan on Friday, October 9 carries 5 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Julius Walker at 73% to beat Gerald Meerschaert. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan is on the full card.
1. Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan, the main event
Maiden picks Brendan Allen (59%) by KO/TKO over Christian Leroy Duncan.
Most likely: KO/TKO 38% · decision 37% · submission 25%.
Brendan Allen, 59% to win, and that is the call. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 38%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 37%.
Brendan Allen meets Christian Leroy Duncan in a five-round headliner starting Friday, 8 PM ET. The method model is highly confident that this bout ends inside the distance. A knockout is the likeliest outcome at 38%, while the submission rate sits at 25%. There is a 37% chance the judges get a say, meaning the cage will likely see a finish before the final bell.
2. Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
Maiden picks Francisco Prado (51%) by KO/TKO over Ismael Bonfim.
Most likely: decision 48% · KO/TKO 39% · submission 13%.
We make it Francisco Prado, 51% to win. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 39%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 48%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Francisco Prado anyway.
Francisco Prado is the pick in a three-round bout where a knockout is the most likely outcome. The model has only moderate certainty in this method, with the KO/TKO rate at 39% and the submission rate at 13%. There is a 48% chance the fight goes the distance. Ismael Bonfim stands in the way on this Friday, 8 PM ET card.
3. Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto
Maiden picks Ernesta Kareckaite (55%) by decision over Melissa Gatto. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: decision 73% · KO/TKO 15% · submission 13%.
Our number here is Ernesta Kareckaite at 55%. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 73%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 73%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Ernesta Kareckaite anyway.
Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto are scheduled for a three-round bout on the Friday, 8 PM ET card. The judges are highly likely to decide the outcome. Our model shows a 15% chance for a knockout and a 13% chance for a submission. The method model has only medium confidence in this decision projection, suggesting the action inside the cage could easily shift.
4. Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert
Maiden picks Julius Walker (73%) by KO/TKO over Gerald Meerschaert.
Most likely: decision 41% · KO/TKO 31% · submission 28%.
We make it Julius Walker, 73% to win. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 31%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 41%.
Julius Walker is the pick in this three-round bout. The model has a moderate level of certainty that a knockout is the most likely outcome, with the KO/TKO rate at 31%. Gerald Meerschaert must also navigate a 28% submission threat. There is a 41% chance this fight goes the distance, meaning the action on Friday, 8 PM ET is likely to end inside the distance.
5. Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka
Maiden picks Andre Fili (52%) by decision over Kai Kamaka.
Most likely: decision 67% · KO/TKO 24% · submission 9%.
Our number here is Andre Fili at 52%. That is barely a lean, and the honest read is that this is close to even. The likeliest ending is a decision at 67%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 67%.
Andre Fili is the pick in a three-round bout where the method model has low confidence in how the fight ends. A knockout has a 24% chance of stopping the action, while a submission sits at 9%. The judges are the likeliest outcome for Fili and Kai Kamaka on this Friday, 8 PM ET card.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan?
- Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 5 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan?
- Francisco Prado against Ismael Bonfim. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.