The five fights worth your Saturday at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Who wins, how it ends, and where our numbers are surest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott on Saturday, October 17 carries 5 fights with a published number on them, and five are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Erin Blanchfield at 74% to beat Jasmine Jasudavicius. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott is on the full card.
1. Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott, the main event
Maiden picks Joaquin Buckley (59%) by KO/TKO over Mike Malott. An upset call: the market leans the other way.
Most likely: KO/TKO 57% · decision 33% · submission 9%.
Joaquin Buckley at 59% is where the desk lands. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 57%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 33%. This one is an upset call: the market leans the other way, and we are taking Joaquin Buckley anyway.
A stoppage inside the five-round limit drives the forecast for this headliner on Saturday, 5 PM ET. Knockouts dominate at 57%, while submissions account for just 9%. The chance of the fight lasting the distance sits at 33%, matching the 33% chance of a decision. The method model holds strong conviction in a KO/TKO finishing Mike Malott.
2. Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz
Maiden picks Jhonata Diniz (54%) by KO/TKO over Tanner Boser.
Most likely: KO/TKO 50% · decision 46% · submission 3%.
Jhonata Diniz, 54% to win, and that is the call. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 50%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 46%.
Knockouts lead the way in this three-round bout, with KO/TKO carrying a 50% chance as the most likely finish. A submission sits at just 3%, while the distance percentage matches the decision rate at 46%. The method confidence for Jhonata Diniz stopping Tanner Boser is moderate, making a violent finish worth waiting for on Saturday, 10 PM ET.
3. Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus
Maiden picks Kyle Daukaus (62%) by KO/TKO over Marc-Andre Barriault.
Most likely: KO/TKO 43% · decision 34% · submission 23%.
Kyle Daukaus at 62% is where the desk lands. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty. The likeliest ending is a KO/TKO at 43%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 34%.
Knockouts drive this three-round bout, with the model holding strong conviction behind that finish. Submissions land at 23%, leaving the distance percentage at 34%. Marc-Andre Barriault and Daukaus fill out the early card on Saturday, 5 PM ET, offering a finish-heavy profile for fans weighing whether to catch the early walk.
4. Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius
Maiden picks Erin Blanchfield (74%) by decision over Jasmine Jasudavicius.
Most likely: decision 70% · submission 27% · KO/TKO 3%.
We make it Erin Blanchfield, 74% to win. That is two wins in every three, played out often enough. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 70%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 70%.
Erin Blanchfield carries a 27% submission rate into this three-round bout, while KO finishes sit down at 3%. Jasmine Jasudavicius needs to survive those mat exchanges on Saturday, 5 PM ET. The method model holds strong belief in a full fifteen minutes, backing a decision finish well clear of a stoppage.
5. Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler
Maiden picks Melissa Croden (62%) by decision over Chelsea Chandler.
Most likely: decision 72% · KO/TKO 15% · submission 13%.
Melissa Croden at 62% is where the desk lands. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty. The likeliest ending is a decision at 72%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 72%.
Knockouts show up at 15% and submissions account for 13% of the split. The method model holds a medium level of confidence in the fight going the full three-round distance. It sits as a non-headliner on Saturday, 5 PM ET, offering a grinding pace over a quick finish.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott?
- Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 5 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
- Where does Maiden disagree with the market at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott?
- Joaquin Buckley against Mike Malott. The market leans the other way, and our number stands anyway. If it misses, the miss stays on the record.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.