The four fights worth your Saturday at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld
Who wins, how it ends, and where our numbers are surest.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before the card, and a bout scrubbed since publish stays on the page, marked, not deleted.
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld on Saturday, August 8 carries 4 fights with a published number on them, and four are worth planning the night around. Our loudest call on the card is Juliana Miller at 61% to beat Ravena Oliveira. Every probability and every method read below was published before the card and gets graded in public after it, misses included.
Every pick we published for UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld is on the full card.
1. Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld, the main event
Maiden picks Quillan Salkilld (60%) by KO/TKO over Mateusz Gamrot.
Most likely: KO/TKO 38% · decision 36% · submission 26%.
Graded: our pick landed. Salkilld won.
Quillan Salkilld, 60% to win, and that is the call. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 38%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 36%. Quillan Salkilld has a 38% chance to win by KO/TKO, the most likely method for this five-round headliner. A submission sits at 26%, while a decision lands at 36%. Mateusz Gamrot must navigate these threats when the walk begins on Saturday, 10:15 PM ET.
2. Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes
Maiden picks Diyar Nurgozhay (61%) by KO/TKO over Bruno Lopes.
Most likely: KO/TKO 46% · decision 41% · submission 13%.
Graded: our pick landed. Nurgozhay won.
Diyar Nurgozhay, 61% to win, and that is the call. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. How it ends most often in our read: KO/TKO, at 46%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 41%.
Diyar Nurgozhay meets Bruno Lopes on Saturday, 7:15 PM ET in a three-round bout. The model has medium confidence in a KO/TKO finish, which stands as the most likely method. A knockout sits at 46% on the board, while a submission holds a 13% chance. There is a 41% chance this fight goes the distance, leaving the decision in the hands of the judges.
3. Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara
Maiden picks Alexia Thainara (60%) by decision over Amanda Lemos.
Most likely: decision 73% · submission 22% · KO/TKO 6%.
Graded: our pick landed. Thainara won.
Alexia Thainara at 60% is where the desk lands. That is a little better than a coin flip. The likeliest ending is a decision at 73%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 73%. A decision is the most likely method for this three-round bout scheduled for Saturday, 8:45 PM ET. Alexia Thainara carries a 6% chance of a knockout and a 22% chance of a submission against Amanda Lemos. The numbers point to a long battle where Thainara must work for the judges' favor.
4. Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira
Maiden picks Juliana Miller (61%) by decision over Ravena Oliveira.
Most likely: decision 73% · submission 16% · KO/TKO 11%.
Graded: our pick landed. Miller won.
Juliana Miller, 61% to win, and that is the call. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. How it ends most often in our read: decision, at 73%. We put the chance it reaches the judges at 73%.
Juliana Miller and Ravena Oliveira meet in a three-round bout scheduled for Saturday, 5:35 PM ET. The model shows medium confidence in a decision finish. A knockout carries an 11% chance, while a submission sits at 16%. Fans watching the cage should expect a full fifteen minutes, as the 73% distance probability dominates the method split.
Every number above went on the record before the card and gets graded after it, win or lose. The misses stay up, and a bout that falls off the card stays on the page, marked.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the best fight at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld?
- Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld is the fight we rate highest on the card, on a combination of how close our number makes it, how likely it is to end inside the distance, and where it sits on the bill.
- Does Maiden publish a pick for every UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld fight?
- Every fight we cover carries a published win probability and a method-of-victory read: 4 on this card. Each one goes on the record before the walk and is graded in public afterwards.
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Every call here is graded after the card and kept up, hit or miss. A scrubbed bout stays on the page, marked.