Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 2, 2026
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats
Kickoff
75%
Alabama Crimson Tide, 75% to win. We project them by 11.1.
Alabama Crimson Tide on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
11.1
49.6
70-75%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Alabama Crimson Tide win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 75%.
| Alabama Crimson Tide | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 94 | 95 | 98 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 90 | 91 | 94 | 97 | |
| Up 7 | 86 | 86 | 88 | 92 | |
| Up 3 | 79 | 77 | 76 | 77 | |
| Tied | 75 | 72 | 68 | 63 | 60 |
| Down 3 | 65 | 59 | 49 | 40 | |
| Down 7 | 54 | 45 | 30 | 18 | |
| Down 10 | 45 | 35 | 19 | 8 | |
| Down 14 | 35 | 23 | 9 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 75%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 75% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 45% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
66-9 on graded college football picks (88%).