Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightAlabama Crimson Tide 45, Kentucky Wildcats 17
Our pick landed: Alabama Crimson Tide won 45-17. We had them at 75%.
Alabama Crimson Tide, 75% to win. We project them by 11.1.
The numbers
| Our pick | Alabama Crimson Tide |
| Chance they win | 75% |
| Our projected spread (Alabama Crimson Tide) | -11.1 |
| Our projected score (Alabama Crimson Tide first) | 30-19 |
| Projected total | 49.6 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Alabama Crimson Tide) | -10 |
| Total | 48.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Alabama vs Kentucky?
- Alabama Crimson Tide won 45-17. Maiden picked Alabama Crimson Tide at 75% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Alabama vs Kentucky win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Kentucky Wildcats hosting Alabama Crimson Tide. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.