Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns

Kickoff Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Model v4

77%

Texas Longhorns, 77% to win. We project them by 12.6.

Texas Longhorns at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.

Texas Longhorns by

12.6

Projected total

53.6

Confidence band

75-80%

Where the number can go: the shaded band covers the middle 80% of game paths, the solid line is the expected one, and the flat dashes are the published call.

The scenario grid

Numbers are the percent chance Texas Longhorns win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 77%.

Texas Longhorns	Kickoff	End Q1	Half	End Q3	8:00 Q4
Up 14		95	96	98	99
Up 10		91	91	94	97
Up 7		87	87	89	92
Up 3		80	78	77	78
Tied	77	74	70	65	61
Down 3		67	61	51	41
Down 7		57	48	32	19
Down 10		48	38	21	9
Down 14		38	26	10	2

Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 77%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.

The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.

States that change the read

The 77% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.

Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 48% and the pre-game read no longer applies.

From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.

The record behind the number

215-49 on graded college football picks (81%).