Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns — prediction and win probability
Texas Longhorns, 77% to win. We project them by 12.6.
The numbers
| Our pick | Texas Longhorns |
| Chance they win | 77% |
| Our projected spread (Texas Longhorns) | -12.6 |
| Our projected score (Texas Longhorns first) | 33-21 |
| Projected total | 53.6 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Texas Longhorns) | -11.5 |
| Total | 51.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Still to come today
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- Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black KnightsSat, Oct 17 · Army Black Knights, 74% to win
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- Washington State Cougars at Oregon State BeaversSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Nevada Wolf Pack at North Dakota State BisonSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Kent State Golden Flashes at South Florida BullsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Florida State Seminoles at Miami HurricanesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor BearsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt CommodoresSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
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- Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse OrangeSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
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- Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU CougarsSat, Oct 17 · Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 71% to win
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- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at UL Monroe WarhawksSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Navy Midshipmen at UTSA RoadrunnersSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- San José State Spartans at UTEP MinersSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Ohio Bobcats at Sacramento State HornetsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Utah Utes at Colorado BuffaloesSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- New Mexico Lobos at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State AztecsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons at California Golden BearsSat, Oct 17 · Our pick: on the game page
Prediction published Oct 11, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Florida vs Texas?
- Maiden gives Texas Longhorns a 77% chance to beat Florida Gators. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.
- What is the projected score for Florida vs Texas?
- Our model projects Texas Longhorns 33, Florida Gators 21. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.
- Where does the Florida vs Texas win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Texas Longhorns hosting Florida Gators. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.