Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 7, 2026
Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black Knights
Kickoff
74%
Army Black Knights, 74% to win. We project them by 10.9.
Army Black Knights at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
10.9
55.2
70-75%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Army Black Knights win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 74%.
| Army Black Knights | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 94 | 95 | 98 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 89 | 90 | 93 | 97 | |
| Up 7 | 85 | 85 | 88 | 92 | |
| Up 3 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 77 | |
| Tied | 74 | 71 | 68 | 63 | 59 |
| Down 3 | 64 | 58 | 49 | 40 | |
| Down 7 | 53 | 45 | 31 | 18 | |
| Down 10 | 45 | 35 | 19 | 8 | |
| Down 14 | 34 | 24 | 9 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 74%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 74% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 45% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 with 8:00 left in Q4, this call reaches 99%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
215-49 on graded college football picks (81%).