Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 6, 2026
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
Kickoff
59%
Louisville Cardinals, 59% to win. We project them by 3.7.
Louisville Cardinals at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
3.7
57.5
55-60%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Louisville Cardinals win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 59%.
| Louisville Cardinals | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 88 | 91 | 96 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 81 | 84 | 91 | 96 | |
| Up 7 | 75 | 77 | 83 | 89 | |
| Up 3 | 66 | 66 | 68 | 72 | |
| Tied | 59 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 53 |
| Down 3 | 49 | 46 | 40 | 34 | |
| Down 7 | 38 | 33 | 23 | 14 | |
| Down 10 | 31 | 24 | 14 | 6 | |
| Down 14 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 59%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 59% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 31% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the end of Q1, this call reaches 88%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 7 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
185-35 on graded college football picks (84%).