Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals — prediction and win probability
Louisville 14, Florida State 14
Still the game we forecast.
The whole sheet: every score, every quarter →
Our number was published before kickoff, and it grades on the public record whichever way this ends. Today’s board.
Louisville Cardinals, 59% to win. We project them by 3.7.
The numbers
| Our pick | Louisville Cardinals |
| Chance they win | 59% |
| Our projected spread (Louisville Cardinals) | -3.7 |
| Our projected score (Louisville Cardinals first) | 31-27 |
| Projected total | 57.5 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Louisville Cardinals) | -4 |
| Total | 60 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Still to come today
Prediction published Oct 4, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Tomorrow's board, before kickoff
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Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Florida State vs Louisville?
- Maiden gives Louisville Cardinals a 59% chance to beat Florida State Seminoles. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.
- What is the projected score for Florida State vs Louisville?
- Our model projects Louisville Cardinals 31, Florida State Seminoles 27. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.
- Where does the Florida State vs Louisville win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Louisville Cardinals hosting Florida State Seminoles. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.