Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 1, 2026
Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels
Kickoff · Neutral site
68%
Ole Miss Rebels, 68% to win. We project them by 7.7.
Ole Miss Rebels at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
7.7
56.0
65-70%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Ole Miss Rebels win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 68%.
| Ole Miss Rebels | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 92 | 94 | 97 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 86 | 88 | 92 | 97 | |
| Up 7 | 81 | 82 | 86 | 91 | |
| Up 3 | 73 | 72 | 72 | 75 | |
| Tied | 68 | 66 | 63 | 59 | 57 |
| Down 3 | 58 | 53 | 45 | 37 | |
| Down 7 | 47 | 39 | 27 | 16 | |
| Down 10 | 38 | 30 | 17 | 7 | |
| Down 14 | 28 | 19 | 7 | 2 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 68%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 68% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 38% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the half, this call reaches 94%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 10 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
College football has no graded weekly record yet. This block fills in from the first graded week.