Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 10, 2026
Maryland Terrapins at Purdue Boilermakers
Kickoff
63%
Purdue Boilermakers, 63% to win. We project them by 5.6.
Purdue Boilermakers at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
5.6
58.9
60-65%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance Purdue Boilermakers win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 63%.
| Purdue Boilermakers | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 90 | 93 | 97 | 99 | |
| Up 10 | 84 | 87 | 92 | 96 | |
| Up 7 | 78 | 80 | 85 | 90 | |
| Up 3 | 69 | 69 | 70 | 73 | |
| Tied | 63 | 62 | 60 | 57 | 55 |
| Down 3 | 53 | 49 | 42 | 35 | |
| Down 7 | 42 | 36 | 25 | 15 | |
| Down 10 | 34 | 27 | 15 | 6 | |
| Down 14 | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 63%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 63% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 34% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
- Up 14 at the end of Q1, this call reaches 90%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.
From 10 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).