Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 0, 2026
North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned Frogs
Kickoff · Neutral site
79%
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win. We project them by 11.
TCU Horned Frogs at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
11.0
52.1
75-80%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance TCU Horned Frogs win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 79%.
| TCU Horned Frogs | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | |
| Up 10 | 94 | 95 | 97 | 99 | |
| Up 7 | 90 | 90 | 93 | 96 | |
| Up 3 | 83 | 81 | 80 | 82 | |
| Tied | 79 | 76 | 72 | 66 | 62 |
| Down 3 | 67 | 60 | 49 | 38 | |
| Down 7 | 54 | 44 | 27 | 13 | |
| Down 10 | 44 | 32 | 14 | 4 | |
| Down 14 | 31 | 19 | 5 | 1 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 79%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 79% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 44% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
From 14 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
309-90 on graded college football picks (77%).