North Carolina Tar Heels vs TCU Horned Frogs — result and pick review
Result
✗ Pick wrongTCU Horned Frogs 10, North Carolina Tar Heels 15
Our pick missed: TCU Horned Frogs lost 10-15. We had them at 79%, and it stays on the record.
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win. We project them by 11.
The numbers
| Our pick | TCU Horned Frogs |
| Chance they win | 79% |
| Our projected spread (TCU Horned Frogs) | -11 |
| Our projected score (TCU Horned Frogs first) | 32-21 |
| Projected total | 52.1 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (TCU Horned Frogs) | -8 |
| Total | 47 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Aug 2, 2026, 10:13 PM UTC · Updated Aug 26, 2026, 1:04 AM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won North Carolina vs TCU?
- North Carolina Tar Heels won 15-10. Maiden picked TCU Horned Frogs at 79% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the North Carolina vs TCU win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for the neutral site, which removes home advantage from both sides. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.