Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans

Kickoff Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Model v4

62%

Northwestern Wildcats, 62% to win. We project them by 5.1.

Northwestern Wildcats on the road. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.

Northwestern Wildcats by

5.1

Projected total

46.4

Confidence band

60-65%

Where the number can go: the shaded band covers the middle 80% of game paths, the solid line is the expected one, and the flat dashes are the published call.

The scenario grid

Numbers are the percent chance Northwestern Wildcats win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 62%.

Northwestern Wildcats	Kickoff	End Q1	Half	End Q3	8:00 Q4
Up 14		89	92	97	99
Up 10		83	86	91	96
Up 7		77	79	84	90
Up 3		68	68	70	73
Tied	62	60	59	56	54
Down 3		52	48	42	35
Down 7		41	35	25	15
Down 10		33	26	15	6
Down 14		24	17	6	1

Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 62%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.

The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.

States that change the read

The 62% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.

Down 10 at the end of Q1, this call falls to 33% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
Up 14 at the end of Q1, this call reaches 89%: closer to settled than to the forecast game.

From 10 up to 3 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.

The record behind the number

215-49 on graded college football picks (81%).