Who is predicted to win Northwestern vs Michigan State?

Maiden gives Northwestern Wildcats a 62% chance to beat Michigan State Spartans. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.

What is the projected score for Northwestern vs Michigan State?

Our model projects Northwestern Wildcats 26, Michigan State Spartans 21. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we published between 60% to 65% have won 24 of 36 college football games, 67%. That is the whole point of publishing a probability rather than a name: you can check for yourself whether a number in that range has actually meant what it said. The full table, every band and every sport, is on our track record page.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we published between 60% to 65% have won 24 of 36 college football games, 67%. That is the whole point of publishing a probability rather than a name: you can check for yourself whether a number in that range has actually meant what it said. The full table, every band and every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Northwestern vs Michigan State win probability come from?

We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Michigan State Spartans hosting Northwestern Wildcats. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans — prediction and win probability

Share pick

Northwestern Wildcats, 62% to win. We project them by 5.1.

The numbers

Our pick	Northwestern Wildcats
Chance they win	62%
Our projected spread (Northwestern Wildcats)	-5.1
Our projected score (Northwestern Wildcats first)	26-21
Projected total	46.4
Our picks at 60% to 65% confidence	24-12 (67%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.

Market average

Spread (Northwestern Wildcats)	-7
Total	49.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Still to come today

Prediction published Oct 11, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC

Tomorrow's board, before kickoff

One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, football included, published before anything starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Northwestern vs Michigan State?: Maiden gives Northwestern Wildcats a 62% chance to beat Michigan State Spartans. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.
What is the projected score for Northwestern vs Michigan State?: Our model projects Northwestern Wildcats 26, Michigan State Spartans 21. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we published between 60% to 65% have won 24 of 36 college football games, 67%. That is the whole point of publishing a probability rather than a name: you can check for yourself whether a number in that range has actually meant what it said. The full table, every band and every sport, is on our track record page.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we published between 60% to 65% have won 24 of 36 college football games, 67%. That is the whole point of publishing a probability rather than a name: you can check for yourself whether a number in that range has actually meant what it said. The full table, every band and every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Northwestern vs Michigan State win probability come from?: We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Michigan State Spartans hosting Northwestern Wildcats. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.