Maiden Gameplan
College Football · Week 0, 2026
San José State Spartans at USC Trojans
Kickoff
97%
USC Trojans, 97% to win. We project them by 30.1.
USC Trojans at home. This number was frozen before kickoff, and it is the one that gets graded.
30.1
58.5
95-100%
The scenario grid
Numbers are the percent chance USC Trojans win the game. Find the clock column and the score row; that cell is the model's live read. It starts at kickoff with the published 97%.
| USC Trojans | Kickoff | End Q1 | Half | End Q3 | 8:00 Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up 14 | 99 | 99 | 100 | 100 | |
| Up 10 | 99 | 98 | 98 | 99 | |
| Up 7 | 98 | 97 | 96 | 97 | |
| Up 3 | 96 | 94 | 90 | 88 | |
| Tied | 97 | 94 | 90 | 82 | 75 |
| Down 3 | 91 | 85 | 71 | 57 | |
| Down 7 | 86 | 75 | 53 | 31 | |
| Down 10 | 81 | 67 | 38 | 16 | |
| Down 14 | 72 | 54 | 22 | 5 |
Cells shade green as the call strengthens and red as it weakens; the outline marks 25 or more points from the published 97%, where the pre-game read no longer applies.
The 8:00 Q4 column is the model's curve between the validated quarter marks, not a directly measured state.
States that change the read
The 97% assumes the game we forecast. These are the scores where that stops being true.
- Down 10 at the half, this call falls to 67% and the pre-game read no longer applies.
From 14 up to 7 down at the half, this is still the game we forecast.
The record behind the number
6-1 on graded college football picks (86%).