San José State Spartans at USC Trojans — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightUSC Trojans 42, San José State Spartans 26
Our pick landed: USC Trojans won 42-26. We had them at 97%.
USC Trojans, 97% to win. We project them by 30.1.
The numbers
| Our pick | USC Trojans |
| Chance they win | 97% |
| Our projected spread (USC Trojans) | -30.1 |
| Our projected score (USC Trojans first) | 44-14 |
| Projected total | 58.5 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (USC Trojans) | -38.5 |
| Total | 60.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC · Updated Aug 26, 2026, 1:04 AM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won San José State Spartans vs USC?
- USC Trojans won 42-26. Maiden picked USC Trojans at 97% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the San José State Spartans vs USC win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with USC Trojans hosting San José State Spartans. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.