Who won Air Force vs Nevada?

Air Force Falcons won 36-33. Maiden picked Air Force Falcons at 60% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 60% to 65% have won 41 of 62 college football games, 66%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Air Force vs Nevada win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Nevada Wolf Pack hosting Air Force Falcons. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 4 · Sep 27, 2026, 2:30 AM UTC

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack — result and pick review

Share result

Result

✓ Pick right

Air Force Falcons 36, Nevada Wolf Pack 33

Our pick landed: Air Force Falcons won 36-33. We had them at 60%.

Air Force Falcons, 60% to win. We project them by 4.3.

The numbers

Our pick	Air Force Falcons
Chance they win	60%
Our projected spread (Air Force Falcons)	-4.3
Our projected score (Air Force Falcons first)	27-23
Projected total	49.3
Our picks at 60% to 65% confidence	41-21 (66%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Air Force Falcons)	-5.5
Total	50.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 20, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

Tomorrow's free picks, by email

One email each morning with the day's free picks, before the games start. Our free beginner's guide comes with it. Unsubscribe anytime.

Frequently asked questions

Who won Air Force vs Nevada?: Air Force Falcons won 36-33. Maiden picked Air Force Falcons at 60% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 60% to 65% have won 41 of 62 college football games, 66%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Air Force vs Nevada win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Nevada Wolf Pack hosting Air Force Falcons. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.