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Week 4, 2026 college football picks

Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. The games we ran and decided not to call are here too, marked, so you can see what we left alone and why. Kickoffs run Thursday, September 24 through Saturday, September 26.

47

games we call

11

we ran and left alone

47

settled so far

309-90

record, all season

77%

picks correct

47 of 47 games

Thursday, September 241game

Friday, September 254games

Saturday, September 2653games

Tomorrow's card, by email

One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, across every sport we cover, published before play and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.

How to read this board

Army Black Knights, 62% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.

One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.

A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at. Those games are still listed, greyed out, and each one has a page saying which gate stopped it. A pick we did not make is part of the record too.