Week 2, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. The games we ran and decided not to call are here too, marked, so you can see what we left alone and why. Kickoffs run Friday, September 11 through Saturday, September 12.
39
games we call
10
we ran and left alone
39
settled so far
66-9
record, all season
88%
picks correct
The Sweat Meter
Every call carries a word for how nervous to be about it. The word is our number translated: Nap-safe at 95 or better, Cruise control at 85, One eye on it at 75, Full sweat at 65, Coin flip with a lean at 55. Graded, every tier:
Nap-safe 6–1 · Cruise control 9–0 · One eye on it 7–1 · Full sweat 7–1 · Coin flip with a lean 3–4
Miracles requested: 7. Delivered: 1.
Coin flips went 3-4, which is what coins do.
Friday, September 11
Saturday, September 12
- Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesWon ✓
Virginia Tech Hokies, 58% to winCoin flip with a lean
Projected total 50.5
- App State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesLost ✗
East Carolina Pirates, 80% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 54
- Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsWon ✓
Penn State Nittany Lions, 90% to winCruise control
Projected total 52.2
- Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysLost ✗
Oregon Ducks, 97% to winNap-safe
Projected total 53.5
- Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWon ✓
Kansas State Wildcats, 68% to winFull sweat
Projected total 52.1
- Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesWon ✓
Texas A&M Aggies, 89% to winCruise control
Projected total 51.6
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWon ✓
Georgia Bulldogs, 97% to winNap-safe
Projected total 52.9
- UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsLost ✗
Texas State Bobcats, 55% to winCoin flip with a lean
Projected total 64.7
- UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersWon ✓
UAB Blazers, 75% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 56
- Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishWon ✓
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 97% to winNap-safe
Projected total 50.5
- Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesWon ✓
Washington Huskies, 92% to winCruise control
Projected total 56.8
- Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansWon ✓
Michigan State Spartans, 84% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 52
- Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniLost ✗
Illinois Fighting Illini, 68% to winFull sweat
Projected total 54.6
- Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsWon ✓
BYU Cougars, 70% to winFull sweat
Projected total 50.9
- UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersWon ✓
Pittsburgh Panthers, 73% to winFull sweat
Projected total 58.6
- Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersLost ✗
Minnesota Golden Gophers, 58% to winCoin flip with a leanUpset
Projected total 55.5
- Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsWon ✓
Alabama Crimson Tide, 75% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 49.6
- Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresWon ✓
Vanderbilt Commodores, 97% to winNap-safe
Projected total 58
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsWon ✓
Ohio Bobcats, 65% to winFull sweat
Projected total 53.1
- Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersWon ✓
Florida International Panthers, 67% to winFull sweat
Projected total 48.5
- Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosWon ✓
Boise State Broncos, 67% to winFull sweat
Projected total 56.6
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdWon ✓
Marshall Thundering Herd, 87% to winCruise control
Projected total 54.3
- Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsLost ✗
Kennesaw State Owls, 61% to winCoin flip with a lean
Projected total 54
- South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveWon ✓
Tulane Green Wave, 78% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 49.9
- Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston BearkatsWon ✓
Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 63% to winCoin flip with a lean
Projected total 53.6
- Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersWon ✓
Nebraska Cornhuskers, 96% to winNap-safe
Projected total 47.9
- Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsWon ✓
Tennessee Volunteers, 66% to winFull sweat
Projected total 58.5
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersWon ✓
LSU Tigers, 90% to winCruise control
Projected total 50.6
- Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsLost ✗
Navy Midshipmen, 61% to winCoin flip with a lean
Projected total 60.7
- Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersWon ✓
Clemson Tigers, 94% to winCruise control
Projected total 53.3
- Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesWon ✓
Iowa Hawkeyes, 80% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 44.7
- Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversWon ✓
Texas Tech Red Raiders, 91% to winCruise control
Projected total 51.3
- Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsWon ✓
Ole Miss Rebels, 97% to winNap-safe
Projected total 57.8
- Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersWon ✓
Auburn Tigers, 89% to winCruise control
Projected total 48.1
- Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesWon ✓
Utah Utes, 82% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 62.2
- Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsWon ✓
Fresno State Bulldogs, 93% to winCruise control
Projected total 49.4
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at USC TrojansWon ✓
USC Trojans, 95% to winNap-safe
Projected total 56.5
- New Mexico State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsWon ✓
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, 82% to winOne eye on it
Projected total 51
- Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
How to read this board
Missouri Tigers, 64% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at. Those games are still listed, greyed out, and each one has a page saying which gate stopped it. A pick we did not make is part of the record too.