App State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates — result and pick review
Result
✗ Pick wrongEast Carolina Pirates 24, App State Mountaineers 27
Our pick missed: East Carolina Pirates lost 24-27. We had them at 80%, and it stays on the record.
East Carolina Pirates, 80% to win. We project them by 14.1.
The numbers
| Our pick | East Carolina Pirates |
| Chance they win | 80% |
| Our projected spread (East Carolina Pirates) | -14.1 |
| Our projected score (East Carolina Pirates first) | 34-20 |
| Projected total | 54 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (East Carolina Pirates) | -6.5 |
| Total | 56 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won App State vs East Carolina?
- App State Mountaineers won 27-24. Maiden picked East Carolina Pirates at 80% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the App State vs East Carolina win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with East Carolina Pirates hosting App State Mountaineers. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.