Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightTexas A&M Aggies 48, Arizona State Sun Devils 20
Our pick landed: Texas A&M Aggies won 48-20. We had them at 89%.
Texas A&M Aggies, 89% to win. We project them by 20.1.
The numbers
| Our pick | Texas A&M Aggies |
| Chance they win | 89% |
| Our projected spread (Texas A&M Aggies) | -20.1 |
| Our projected score (Texas A&M Aggies first) | 36-16 |
| Projected total | 51.6 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Texas A&M Aggies) | -14.5 |
| Total | 50.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Sep 5, 2026, 11:13 AM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Arizona State vs Texas A&M?
- Texas A&M Aggies won 48-20. Maiden picked Texas A&M Aggies at 89% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Arizona State vs Texas A&M win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Texas A&M Aggies hosting Arizona State Sun Devils. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.