Who won Boise State vs Oregon?

Oregon Ducks won 34-27. Maiden picked Oregon Ducks at 90% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Boise State vs Oregon win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Oregon Ducks hosting Boise State Broncos. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC

Boise State Broncos at Oregon Ducks — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Oregon Ducks 34, Boise State Broncos 27

Our pick landed: Oregon Ducks won 34-27. We had them at 90%.

Oregon Ducks, 90% to win. We project them by 21.2.

The numbers

Our pick	Oregon Ducks
Chance they win	90%
Our projected spread (Oregon Ducks)	-21.2
Our projected score (Oregon Ducks first)	39-17
Projected total	55.9
Our picks at 85% to 90% confidence	33-5 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Oregon Ducks)	-24.5
Total	51.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Boise State vs Oregon?: Oregon Ducks won 34-27. Maiden picked Oregon Ducks at 90% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 85% to 90% have won 33 of 38 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Boise State vs Oregon win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Oregon Ducks hosting Boise State Broncos. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.