Week 1, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win and our probability. The games we ran and decided not to call are here too, marked, so you can see what we left alone and why. Kickoffs run Thursday, September 3 through Monday, September 7.
28
games we call
15
we ran and left alone
28
settled so far
309-90
record, all season
77%
picks correct
Thursday, September 3
- Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsWon ✓
Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 89% to win
Projected total 51
- UAB Blazers at Illinois Fighting IlliniWon ✓
Illinois Fighting Illini, 95% to win
Projected total 57.5
- Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
Friday, September 4
- UTEP Miners at Oklahoma SoonersWon ✓
Oklahoma Sooners, 97% to win
Projected total 47.8
- Fresno State Bulldogs at USC TrojansWon ✓
USC Trojans, 86% to win
Projected total 54.4
- Miami Hurricanes at Stanford CardinalWon ✓
Miami Hurricanes, 91% to win
Projected total 50.8
- San José State Spartans at Eastern Michigan EaglesToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Toledo Rockets at Michigan State SpartansNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
Saturday, September 5
- Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at West Virginia MountaineersWon ✓
West Virginia Mountaineers, 80% to win
Projected total 55.6
- North Texas Mean Green at Indiana HoosiersWon ✓
Indiana Hoosiers, 93% to win
Projected total 64.7
- Oregon State Beavers at Houston CougarsWon ✓
Houston Cougars, 83% to win
Projected total 48.8
- East Carolina Pirates at Alabama Crimson TideWon ✓
Alabama Crimson Tide, 83% to win
Projected total 51.2
- Miami (OH) RedHawks at Pittsburgh PanthersWon ✓
Pittsburgh Panthers, 80% to win
Projected total 51.4
- Ball State Cardinals at Ohio State BuckeyesWon ✓
Ohio State Buckeyes, 97% to win
Projected total 47.2
- Boise State Broncos at Oregon DucksWon ✓
Oregon Ducks, 90% to win
Projected total 55.9
- Boston College Eagles at Cincinnati BearcatsWon ✓
Cincinnati Bearcats, 72% to win
Projected total 55.1
- Baylor Bears vs Auburn TigersWon ✓
Auburn Tigers, 63% to win
Projected total 55.2
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Penn State Nittany LionsWon ✓
Penn State Nittany Lions, 93% to win
Projected total 54.5
- Northern Illinois Huskies at Iowa HawkeyesWon ✓
Iowa Hawkeyes, 96% to win
Projected total 42.3
- Sam Houston Bearkats at Troy TrojansWon ✓
Troy Trojans, 83% to win
Projected total 49.1
- Missouri State Bears at Texas A&M AggiesWon ✓
Texas A&M Aggies, 97% to win
Projected total 55
- Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan WolverinesWon ✓
Michigan Wolverines, 89% to win
Projected total 46.9
- UL Monroe Warhawks at Mississippi State BulldogsWon ✓
Mississippi State Bulldogs, 91% to win
Projected total 54.2
- Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida GatorsWon ✓
Florida Gators, 89% to win
Projected total 54.1
- Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico LobosWon ✓
New Mexico Lobos, 71% to win
Projected total 51.7
- UNLV Rebels at Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsWon ✓
UNLV Rebels, 59% to win
Projected total 57.7
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf PackLost ✗
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 63% to win
Projected total 49.4
- UCLA Bruins at California Golden BearsLost ✗
California Golden Bears, 59% to win
Projected total 50.8
- Ohio Bobcats at Nebraska CornhuskersNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Liberty Flames at James Madison DukesNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Kent State Golden Flashes at South Carolina GamecocksNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Texas State Bobcats at Texas LonghornsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue DevilsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden HurricaneToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Wyoming Cowboys at Colorado State RamsToo close to call
We ran it and landed too near a coin flip to publish.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis TigersNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Florida International Panthers at South Florida BullsNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
- Clemson Tigers at LSU TigersNo call
We ran it and decided not to publish a call.
Sunday, September 6
Monday, September 7
Tomorrow's card, by email
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How to read this board
Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 89% to win. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
One number per row, and it is the probability. We do project a margin for each game, and it is on the game page where there is room to label it — but it is context, not a call, and nobody is graded on it. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page, and neither does anyone else’s number.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its gates, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at. Those games are still listed, greyed out, and each one has a page saying which gate stopped it. A pick we did not make is part of the record too.