Week 1, 2026 college football picks
Every game we have a call on this week — the side we pick to win, our probability, and a projected margin for context. Games our model is not confident about are left off entirely rather than published as a coin flip.
36
games on the board
0
settled so far
—
nothing graded yet
—
picks correct
- North Carolina Tar Heels at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win · by 11
Projected total 52.1
- San José State Spartans at USC Trojans
USC Trojans, 96% to win · by 24
Projected total 58.5
- NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia Cavaliers, 62% to win · by 4.3
Projected total 53.3
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State Bison
North Dakota State Bison, 70% to win · by 7.1
Projected total 53.3
- Sacramento State Hornets at Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan Eagles, 64% to win · by 5
Projected total 56.9
- New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles, 91% to win · by 18.5
Projected total 51.4
- Massachusetts Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 98% to win · by 27.9
Projected total 56.6
- Akron Zips at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 88% to win · by 15.9
Projected total 51
- Colorado Buffaloes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 74% to win · by 8.7
Projected total 55.1
- UAB Blazers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois Fighting Illini, 95% to win · by 22.4
Projected total 57.5
- UTEP Miners at Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Sooners, 98% to win · by 26.7
Projected total 47.8
- North Texas Mean Green at Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Hoosiers, 89% to win · by 16.9
Projected total 64.7
- Miami (OH) RedHawks at Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers, 78% to win · by 10.3
Projected total 51.4
- East Carolina Pirates at Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide, 81% to win · by 11.8
Projected total 51.2
- Oregon State Beavers at Houston Cougars
Houston Cougars, 85% to win · by 14.1
Projected total 48.8
- Ball State Cardinals at Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes, 100% to win · by 39.6
Projected total 47.2
- Boston College Eagles at Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati Bearcats, 74% to win · by 8.6
Projected total 55.1
- Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers
Auburn Tigers, 60% to win · by 3.3
Projected total 55.2
- Boise State Broncos at Oregon Ducks
Oregon Ducks, 88% to win · by 16.2
Projected total 55.9
- Marshall Thundering Herd at Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions, 90% to win · by 17.6
Projected total 54.5
- Northern Illinois Huskies at Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes, 96% to win · by 24.2
Projected total 42.3
- Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers, 85% to win · by 14.3
Projected total 54.8
- Missouri State Bears at Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies, 96% to win · by 23.8
Projected total 55
- Sam Houston Bearkats at Troy Trojans
Troy Trojans, 84% to win · by 13.4
Projected total 49.1
- Florida International Panthers at South Florida Bulls
South Florida Bulls, 89% to win · by 16.9
Projected total 59.8
- Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines, 86% to win · by 14.8
Projected total 46.9
- UL Monroe Warhawks at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs, 87% to win · by 15.2
Projected total 54.2
- Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators
Florida Gators, 87% to win · by 15.4
Projected total 54.1
- UNLV Rebels at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
UNLV Rebels, 57% to win · by 2.4
Projected total 57.7
- Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico Lobos, 71% to win · by 7.6
Projected total 51.7
- UCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears
California Golden Bears, 60% to win · by 3.5
Projected total 50.8
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 68% to win · by 6.3
Projected total 49.4
- Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies
Washington Huskies, 77% to win · by 10
Projected total 50.8
- Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels, 65% to win · by 5.1
Projected total 56
- Wisconsin Badgers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 93% to win · by 19.7
Projected total 47.1
- SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles
SMU Mustangs, 66% to win · by 5.6
Projected total 53.3
How to read this board
TCU Horned Frogs, 79% to win — we project them by 11. Each row is one call: the team we pick to win and how likely we think that is. The probability is the pick — it is what gets graded, and a 68% call that loses is a 68% call that lost, not a bad model.
The projected margin and total under a pick are context, not calls. They are our own numbers, they beat a naive baseline, and nobody is graded on them. No sportsbook line appears anywhere on this page.
A short board is the honest one. We publish only where our model clears its confidence floor, so a week with a lot of close games has fewer picks on it — the games we leave out are the ones we would be guessing at.