Who won Duke vs Illinois?

Duke Blue Devils won 31-27. Maiden picked Illinois Fighting Illini at 68% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Duke vs Illinois win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Illinois Fighting Illini hosting Duke Blue Devils. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini — result and pick review

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Result

✗ Pick wrong

Illinois Fighting Illini 27, Duke Blue Devils 31

Our pick missed: Illinois Fighting Illini lost 27-31. We had them at 68%, and it stays on the record.

Illinois Fighting Illini, 68% to win. We project them by 7.8.

The numbers

Our pick	Illinois Fighting Illini
Chance they win	68%
Our projected spread (Illinois Fighting Illini)	-7.8
Our projected score (Illinois Fighting Illini first)	31-23
Projected total	54.6
Our picks at 65% to 70% confidence	35-16 (69%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Illinois Fighting Illini)	-6
Total	51.5

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Duke vs Illinois?: Duke Blue Devils won 31-27. Maiden picked Illinois Fighting Illini at 68% to win, published before kickoff, so the call missed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 65% to 70% have won 35 of 51 college football games, 69%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Duke vs Illinois win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Illinois Fighting Illini hosting Duke Blue Devils. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.