Florida Atlantic Owls at Florida Gators — result and pick review
Result
✓ Pick rightFlorida Gators 66, Florida Atlantic Owls 21
Our pick landed: Florida Gators won 66-21. We had them at 89%.
Florida Gators, 89% to win. We project them by 20.6.
The numbers
| Our pick | Florida Gators |
| Chance they win | 89% |
| Our projected spread (Florida Gators) | -20.6 |
| Our projected score (Florida Gators first) | 37-17 |
| Projected total | 54.1 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Florida Gators) | -26.5 |
| Total | 59.5 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Prediction published Aug 22, 2026, 3:01 PM UTC
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Frequently asked questions
- Who won Florida Atlantic vs Florida?
- Florida Gators won 66-21. Maiden picked Florida Gators at 89% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
- Where does the Florida Atlantic vs Florida win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Florida Gators hosting Florida Atlantic Owls. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.