Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies — prediction and win probability
Iowa Hawkeyes, 55% to win. We project them by 2.3.
The numbers
| Our pick | Iowa Hawkeyes |
| Chance they win | 55% |
| Our projected spread (Iowa Hawkeyes) | -2.3 |
| Our projected score (Iowa Hawkeyes first) | 23-20 |
| Projected total | 43 |
The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.
Market average
| Spread (Iowa Hawkeyes) | +3 |
| Total | 41 |
The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.
Still to come today
Prediction published Oct 4, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC
Open this game's sheet
One printable page of what our number becomes at every score: level at the half, up ten, down four. Yours for this game while it is being played, plus the day's picks each morning. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win Iowa vs Washington?
- Maiden gives Iowa Hawkeyes a 55% chance to beat Washington Huskies. That is our model's straight-up win probability, published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards, whichever way it goes.
- What is the projected score for Iowa vs Washington?
- Our model projects Iowa Hawkeyes 23, Washington Huskies 20. The projected score and spread are supporting context only: the win probability is the published call, and it is the only number we are graded on.
- Where does the Iowa vs Washington win probability come from?
- We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Washington Huskies hosting Iowa Hawkeyes. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
- Is this betting advice?
- No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.