Who won Iowa State vs Iowa?

Iowa Hawkeyes won 16-13. Maiden picked Iowa Hawkeyes at 80% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?

Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.

Where does the Iowa State vs Iowa win probability come from?

We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Iowa Hawkeyes hosting Iowa State Cyclones. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Iowa Hawkeyes 16, Iowa State Cyclones 13

Our pick landed: Iowa Hawkeyes won 16-13. We had them at 80%.

Iowa Hawkeyes, 80% to win. We project them by 14.

The numbers

Our pick	Iowa Hawkeyes
Chance they win	80%
Our projected spread (Iowa Hawkeyes)	-14
Our projected score (Iowa Hawkeyes first)	29-15
Projected total	44.7
Our picks at 80% to 85% confidence	40-6 (87%)

That is our real record at this confidence level. Every level, graded in public.

We’re judged on the chance to win. The projected spread, score and total come from the same numbers, and they beat a simple baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not the market’s. Where we have the market's numbers, they're shown separately and labeled.

Market average

Spread (Iowa Hawkeyes)	-14
Total	41

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Iowa State vs Iowa?: Iowa Hawkeyes won 16-13. Maiden picked Iowa Hawkeyes at 80% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
How often is Maiden right at this confidence level?: Picks we've made between 80% to 85% have won 40 of 46 college football games, 87%. That's why we post a percentage and not just a name: you can check whether a number in that range really meant what it said. Every level, in every sport, is on our track record page.
Where does the Iowa State vs Iowa win probability come from?: We rate every team on eleven seasons of college football results, mix in team efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home field, with Iowa Hawkeyes hosting Iowa State Cyclones. We tested the method on more than six thousand games it had not seen. No sportsbook line goes into our number.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.