Who won Iowa State vs Iowa?

Iowa Hawkeyes won 16-13. Maiden picked Iowa Hawkeyes at 80% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.

Where does the Iowa State vs Iowa win probability come from?

We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Iowa Hawkeyes hosting Iowa State Cyclones. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.

Is this betting advice?

No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026, 11:30 PM UTC

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes — result and pick review

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Result

✓ Pick right

Iowa Hawkeyes 16, Iowa State Cyclones 13

Our pick landed: Iowa Hawkeyes won 16-13. We had them at 80%.

Iowa Hawkeyes, 80% to win. We project them by 14.

The numbers

Our pick	Iowa Hawkeyes
Chance they win	80%
Our projected spread (Iowa Hawkeyes)	-14
Our projected score (Iowa Hawkeyes first)	29-15
Projected total	44.7

The win probability is the graded call. The projected spread, score and total come from the same model, and they beat a naive baseline in every season we tested. A spread reads here as it does anywhere else: -11 means we project that side to win by eleven. These are our numbers, not a market’s — the market consensus is shown separately, and labelled, wherever we have it.

Market average

Spread (Iowa Hawkeyes)	-14
Total	41

The market’s numbers, not ours: an average across the books our data provider covers, for context beside the projections above. We don’t guarantee its accuracy or timeliness, and nothing here is a price you can transact at.

Prediction published Sep 6, 2026, 3:02 PM UTC

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Frequently asked questions

Who won Iowa State vs Iowa?: Iowa Hawkeyes won 16-13. Maiden picked Iowa Hawkeyes at 80% to win, published before kickoff, so the call landed. Either way it stays on our public record.
Where does the Iowa State vs Iowa win probability come from?: We fit power ratings to eleven seasons of college football results, blend them with published efficiency ratings and recruiting talent, and adjust for home advantage, with Iowa Hawkeyes hosting Iowa State Cyclones. The win-probability model is checked against more than six thousand out-of-sample games. No sportsbook line goes into it, and none appears on this page.
Is this betting advice?: No. Maiden publishes a win probability on every pick and grades every one of them in public, so there is a record to check rather than a claim to take on trust. We never tell anyone what to back or how much, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Maiden publishes predictions, not bets.